X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

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X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Summydad1 »

First off I am a noob on this forum so please excuse any dumb questions. Up till yesterday, I have only ever bought/collected Pre-1994 Valiant comics. I'm pretty comfortable knowing the values of the older books with zero knowledge of modern Valiant values. I got caught up in the hype of owning the 1:500 brushed metal X-O #1. I bought a copy yesterday online without knowing what to look for. Are there multiple prints of this book? How do I know I'm getting the correct version? It is a CGC 9.6 and I paid $425 plus shipping. Seemed like a killer deal because the online price guide says $500. Thanks for the help.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by TheeBaldMoose »

$425? That's a great deal for a 9.6. Consider I purchased mine for $600, and you can see the value you got.

It's just that book (not multiple prints), and there are roughly (what can be guestimated) 200 total books out there.

Except yours, it could be a fake one. Probably want to send that to me to investigate a little further. :thumb:
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Summydad1 »

Haha. I don't know all the forum rules yet but I saw it newly listed on eBay in auction format with zero bids. I contacted the seller and offered $425 and he jumped all over it in 30 seconds. Makes me a little suspicious. He shipped it out today. I might have to post a picture when it arrives to get the confirmation. All these modern variant covers confuse me. I miss just regular and gold. Thanks.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by greg »

In the recent X-O #1 Brushed Metal variant discussion, I included a brief summary of the modern variant market.
http://valiantfans.com/forum/viewtopic. ... 5#p1057087" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
:thumb:

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Summydad1 »

Thank you. I have spent way too much time on this website in the last 5 days. It has so much info.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by greg »

Summydad1 wrote:Thank you. I have spent way too much time on this website in the last 5 days. It has so much info.
No worries, we've spent a lot more than 5 days building it up. :wink:

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by mkb28 »

Summydad1 wrote:Haha. I don't know all the forum rules yet but I saw it newly listed on eBay in auction format with zero bids. I contacted the seller and offered $425 and he jumped all over it in 30 seconds. Makes me a little suspicious. He shipped it out today. I might have to post a picture when it arrives to get the confirmation. All these modern variant covers confuse me. I miss just regular and gold. Thanks.
Well, that explains why the seller ended his auction. It certainly looked legit to me and I was competing against him with my CGC 9.6 copy. Sounds like you got a nice price on a very rare Valiant book. :thumb:

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Summydad1 »

Thank you. The seller said he had the 9.6 first then got a 9.8 and had to sell his 9.6. I guess I was browsing at the right time. Haha. It is the only Valiant book I own published after 1994. I guess I just opened a whole new can of corn. Im pumped to start chasing the new rare variants.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by nonplayer »

TheeBaldMoose wrote:$425? That's a great deal for a 9.6. Consider I purchased mine for $600, and you can see the value you got.

It's just that book (not multiple prints), and there are roughly (what can be guestimated) 200 total books out there.

Except yours, it could be a fake one. Probably want to send that to me to investigate a little further. :thumb:
Are you saying the brushed metal cover has 200 copied? Isn't that way hight guesstimate? I don't know really for sure but that sounds high. I thought maybe 20 copies.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Aport »

:thumb:

See below. I said I was a big XO fan.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by jeremycoe »

nonplayer wrote:
TheeBaldMoose wrote:$425? That's a great deal for a 9.6. Consider I purchased mine for $600, and you can see the value you got.

It's just that book (not multiple prints), and there are roughly (what can be guestimated) 200 total books out there.

Except yours, it could be a fake one. Probably want to send that to me to investigate a little further. :thumb:
Are you saying the brushed metal cover has 200 copied? Isn't that way hight guesstimate? I don't know really for sure but that sounds high. I thought maybe 20 copies.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by jmatt »

nonplayer wrote:Are you saying the brushed metal cover has 200 copied? Isn't that way hight guesstimate? I don't know really for sure but that sounds high. I thought maybe 20 copies.
No way they would print just 20 copies of anything. Prior to this, the Divinity #1 1:40 was the lowest print count at 350 (if I recall correctly). 200 is tiny print run. Heck, we probably have 20 copies owned just with board members.

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Nairbe »

jmatt wrote:
nonplayer wrote:Are you saying the brushed metal cover has 200 copied? Isn't that way hight guesstimate? I don't know really for sure but that sounds high. I thought maybe 20 copies.
No way they would print just 20 copies of anything. Prior to this, the Divinity #1 1:40 was the lowest print count at 350 (if I recall correctly). 200 is tiny print run. Heck, we probably have 20 copies owned just with board members.
I would say 20 is the low end of the scale for the boards. I would guess 50-60 copies for board members. I have 3 copies myself.

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Summydad1 »

Just a guess but I would assume that 90% of the people that own this book would be on this forum. When really rare variants are concerned, what is the best method we have to nail down a print run?
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by nonplayer »

They may have printed... I mean forged 200 copies but no way stores qualified for 200 copies.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Aport »

If I remember right, I believe there was another post that said 200 were made, but only 120 were released to stores that qualified.
Some of the 80 left were used as promos at cons.
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by greg »

Summydad1 wrote:Just a guess but I would assume that 90% of the people that own this book would be on this forum.

That's probably too high. From what I can tell in the visitor logs of the website, only about 20% of the people who visit this website regularly are members.
80% appear to like visiting, reading, and returning to the site without taking the time to create an account.
That's not surprising since I think a lot of the websites that I visit often (news, sports, etc.) have the option to create an account, comment, etc., and I don't. :D
Summydad1 wrote:When really rare variants are concerned, what is the best method we have to nail down a print run?
We don't have a good method beyond guessing based upon a ratio for what is still a guess of the print run for the regular issues.
Our best numbers come from actual announcements by Valiant (or Valiant insiders) who state that X were printed.

In the case of X-O #1 1:500, the statement from a Valiant insider was that 200 were printed. Since Valiant also announced 90,000 copies were sold, that would be 180 copies by calculation (1:500 for 90,000) and there is always an extra amount for damages, internal use, etc.

There are books which would appear to be super-limited... such as a 1:100 variant for books that only sold 10,000 copies. That would be 100 copies for the variant.
But we know, from statements made by Valiant that the next lowest variants are around 300 or 350 copies... so there are 400+ copies for every Valiant variant that has ratios, regardless of the calculation.

The ratios are set as rules for retailers, how does Dealer ABC get a copy? They have to order 20 or 50 or 500 or whatever.
There's no rule for publishers. Publishers can print as many as they want. They can give them away (and Valiant often does at conventions).
If publishers made a book very tough for retailers but then printed many, many extra that would anger retailers.
So, publishers usually keep the number of copies for themselves, giveaways, etc., to a low number...
but there's no reason to believe there are fewer than 400 of any recent Valiant books unless Valiant says so.

However, the number printed and the number available in the market are very different.

It's possible that more than 1,000 of these were printed (without the UPC on the cover):
http://www.valiantpriceguide.com/issue/ ... lesnoPrice" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.valiantpriceguide.com/issue/show/tESnoPrice" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

...but there haven't been any for sale publicly in years.
The price guide estimate of $40 is a total guess. It might be $400, we just don't know. Someone needs to put one up for auction and see what happens.
The problem is that the book appears to have been made specifically for a plastic packaging "blister pack" in 1998 that was likely sold in non-comic shops.
No one knows how many were made, not every blister pack included the book, and it's likely that non-comic buyers were the kind who throw away comics.

It's likely that at least 1,000 copies of Shadowman #5 1:50 variant were made in 2013... but the number that come up for sale is tiny... less than 1%.
Where did they go? Is there a box of them somewhere? We don't know.

It can be dangerous to pay hundreds of dollars for books with those types of unknowns.
X-O Manowar #1/2 Gold variant (a Wizard variant) was $250 until a stack of them were found and they were available for $25 within weeks. That single stack appears to be the only significant quantity ever found and once it stopped being available in the market, the price went up again... but not all the way to $250.

I'm concerned about the trends in the market for new books to sell for $1,000+... not just Valiant's one example, but numerous examples for Marvel and D.C.
What is the price based upon? Limited number? Well, we just don't know how many the publishers are making, so the price is based on an unknown.
If the book is $10, there's not much risk, but how many of us would spend $1,000+ on anything else just because of one reason (scarcity) that might not even be true.

But I digress. People pay $1,000+ all the time for diamonds and they are literally as common as dirt. Marketing and consensus must be more important than data (for now). :lol:

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by nonplayer »

greg wrote:
Summydad1 wrote:Just a guess but I would assume that 90% of the people that own this book would be on this forum.

That's probably too high. From what I can tell in the visitor logs of the website, only about 20% of the people who visit this website regularly are members.
80% appear to like visiting, reading, and returning to the site without taking the time to create an account.
That's not surprising since I think a lot of the websites that I visit often (news, sports, etc.) have the option to create an account, comment, etc., and I don't. :D
Summydad1 wrote:When really rare variants are concerned, what is the best method we have to nail down a print run?
We don't have a good method beyond guessing based upon a ratio for what is still a guess of the print run for the regular issues.
Our best numbers come from actual announcements by Valiant (or Valiant insiders) who state that X were printed.

In the case of X-O #1 1:500, the statement from a Valiant insider was that 200 were printed. Since Valiant also announced 90,000 copies were sold, that would be 180 copies by calculation (1:500 for 90,000) and there is always an extra amount for damages, internal use, etc.

There are books which would appear to be super-limited... such as a 1:100 variant for books that only sold 10,000 copies. That would be 100 copies for the variant.
But we know, from statements made by Valiant that the next lowest variants are around 300 or 350 copies... so there are 400+ copies for every Valiant variant that has ratios, regardless of the calculation.

The ratios are set as rules for retailers, how does Dealer ABC get a copy? They have to order 20 or 50 or 500 or whatever.
There's no rule for publishers. Publishers can print as many as they want. They can give them away (and Valiant often does at conventions).
If publishers made a book very tough for retailers but then printed many, many extra that would anger retailers.
So, publishers usually keep the number of copies for themselves, giveaways, etc., to a low number...
but there's no reason to believe there are fewer than 400 of any recent Valiant books unless Valiant says so.

However, the number printed and the number available in the market are very different.

It's possible that more than 1,000 of these were printed (without the UPC on the cover):
http://www.valiantpriceguide.com/issue/ ... lesnoPrice" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.valiantpriceguide.com/issue/show/tESnoPrice" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

...but there haven't been any for sale publicly in years.
The price guide estimate of $40 is a total guess. It might be $400, we just don't know. Someone needs to put one up for auction and see what happens.
The problem is that the book appears to have been made specifically for a plastic packaging "blister pack" in 1998 that was likely sold in non-comic shops.
No one knows how many were made, not every blister pack included the book, and it's likely that non-comic buyers were the kind who throw away comics.

It's likely that at least 1,000 copies of Shadowman #5 1:50 variant were made in 2013... but the number that come up for sale is tiny... less than 1%.
Where did they go? Is there a box of them somewhere? We don't know.

It can be dangerous to pay hundreds of dollars for books with those types of unknowns.
X-O Manowar #1/2 Gold variant (a Wizard variant) was $250 until a stack of them were found and they were available for $25 within weeks. That single stack appears to be the only significant quantity ever found and once it stopped being available in the market, the price went up again... but not all the way to $250.

I'm concerned about the trends in the market for new books to sell for $1,000+... not just Valiant's one example, but numerous examples for Marvel and D.C.
What is the price based upon? Limited number? Well, we just don't know how many the publishers are making, so the price is based on an unknown.
If the book is $10, there's not much risk, but how many of us would spend $1,000+ on anything else just because of one reason (scarcity) that might not even be true.

But I digress. People pay $1,000+ all the time for diamonds and they are literally as common as dirt. Marketing and consensus must be more important than data (for now). :lol:
Great post Greg.
Thanks
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Summydad1 »

Awesome reply. That sheds a lot of light on the subject. True, the unknown is a monetary risk but the unknown is kind of exciting to me. I base what I pay for books on emotion. If it makes me feel excited to be in the mix then it is worth it. I enjoy the chase. Thanks for all the great info!
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by FormerReader »

jmatt wrote:
nonplayer wrote:Are you saying the brushed metal cover has 200 copied? Isn't that way hight guesstimate? I don't know really for sure but that sounds high. I thought maybe 20 copies.
No way they would print just 20 copies of anything. Prior to this, the Divinity #1 1:40 was the lowest print count at 350 (if I recall correctly). 200 is tiny print run. Heck, we probably have 20 copies owned just with board members.
I think Savage #1 1:50 was actually lower at 300 copies.

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by greg »

Summydad1 wrote:Awesome reply. That sheds a lot of light on the subject. True, the unknown is a monetary risk but the unknown is kind of exciting to me. I base what I pay for books on emotion. If it makes me feel excited to be in the mix then it is worth it. I enjoy the chase. Thanks for all the great info!
I agree about the excitement and emotion, but I'm also immediately reminded of buying Turok #1 for $3.50 in 1993 with excitement... and the emotion of seeing it for 50cents a few months later. That was disappointing, but only a few dollars worth of disappointment... and I quit buying comics altogether for years as a result.

My fears are related to the potential for thousands of dollars of disappointment in one or two books... and the backlash that might follow it.

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by FormerReader »

greg wrote:
I'm concerned about the trends in the market for new books to sell for $1,000+... not just Valiant's one example, but numerous examples for Marvel and D.C.
What is the price based upon? Limited number? Well, we just don't know how many the publishers are making, so the price is based on an unknown.
If the book is $10, there's not much risk, but how many of us would spend $1,000+ on anything else just because of one reason (scarcity) that might not even be true.
This not only confuses me, but scares me as well. I'm not going to tell anyone how to spend their money, but I've decided I'm going to limit my involvement.

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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by agent_graves »

Summydad1 wrote:Awesome reply. That sheds a lot of light on the subject. True, the unknown is a monetary risk but the unknown is kind of exciting to me. I base what I pay for books on emotion. If it makes me feel excited to be in the mix then it is worth it. I enjoy the chase.Thanks for all the great info!
+1 :thumb:
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Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by hulk181man »

greg wrote:
Summydad1 wrote:Awesome reply. That sheds a lot of light on the subject. True, the unknown is a monetary risk but the unknown is kind of exciting to me. I base what I pay for books on emotion. If it makes me feel excited to be in the mix then it is worth it. I enjoy the chase. Thanks for all the great info!
I agree about the excitement and emotion, but I'm also immediately reminded of buying Turok #1 for $3.50 in 1993 with excitement... and the emotion of seeing it for 50cents a few months later. That was disappointing, but only a few dollars worth of disappointment... and I quit buying comics altogether for years as a result.

My fears are related to the potential for thousands of dollars of disappointment in one or two books... and the backlash that might follow it.
Absolutely agree and it will happen, of this I am certain.

I've been in the hobby for over 30 years, I remember the small press black & white/TMNT parody craze of the mid-80's when books such as Miami Mice, Fish Police, Shuriken, Adolescent Radioactive Black Belt Hamsters, Red Fox, Troll Lords, Mangazine etc. were all hot books selling at crazy prices....then demand disappeared and reality set in. Today few people care about these books. I remember the gimmick cover craze of the late 80's and 90's, and yes, even Valiant's own golden age circa 1992-1993 when books such as Magnus 0 and 12, Rai 3 and 4, Harby 0, 1 etc. sold in the $100.00 range. Harby 1 has finally bounced back but these were high quality books with great stories and demand still eventually dropped.

If you have 1K burning a hole in your pocket buy bronze, silver and modern first appearances --- in the highest grade you can afford. Collectors will always pursue first appearances of characters they enjoy and many of these have become pop culture icons so demand will not disappear overnight. These are the books with the most staying power, that've steadily appreciated over the decades...for example, a book such as Tales to Astonish 27 in 2.0 or 3.0 range is a much more interesting buy in the 1K range (a 3.0 sold for $1,250 last week). The first Ant-man movie was well received, another is on the horizon. Compare to an AF 15 in 2.5 now = 13K, a Hulk 1 in 2.5 = 7K. I focus on TTA as an example since it's a fairly tough early silver key that currently goes for about the same price as Avengers 1 in similar 2.5/3.0 condition, yet Avengers 1 is more plentiful so I conclude TTA 27 might be a book to pursue. My point: if you're buying to invest then analyze the market, understand whimsical demand and make wise choices. If you're buying the hot variant of the moment understand that you need to sell in the short-term or risk getting hosed when demand moves on. If you really want a variant book in your collection be patient, demand will eventually wane, prices will stabilize and often drop, and that's when you buy.

For valiant collectors, pursue VEI first appearances of new characters and old school first appearances of the classic characters I.E. Bloodshot, X-O, Shadowman, Harada, Ninjak, Q&W etc. Harbinger 1 in 9.8 looks strong or Solar 10 in 9.8 or as Greg's pointed out before, pick these up in 9.6's for a great comparative bargain. It's not rocket science but I'm dismayed to see so many people flushing big, big money on artificially crafted demand. It's not healthy. Buy the books and the characters you enjoy reading about and resist the urge to buy a book just because it's hot. I've seen way too many of these reverse course over the years....
...end :rant:
"Did they get you to trade your heroes for ghosts...?"

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Ramses818
Rockin' out in Torquehalla
Rockin' out in Torquehalla
Posts: 2449
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:46:41 pm
Valiant fan since: X-O Manowar 14
Favorite character: Rai
Favorite title: X-o but maybe soon to be Rai
Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
Favorite artist: Clayton Crain
Location: Southern California
Re: X-O #1 Brushed metal variant question

Post by Ramses818 »

Do I have a split personality? :? Hulkman181 sounds waayyy to much like the voices in my head! And he has the right age too! Lol


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