Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

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Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by aj583 »

I'm in the process of selling old Valiant books and keeping a few keys. I haven't been paying attention to the overall comic book market closely.

When looking at all of these new key VEI variants (which I now want :-) ), those of the 1:500 and 1:200 kind, do folks feel that this is contributing to another bubble?

Variant comic demand is fine today due to a) mainstream comic movies or upcoming movies (I.e. VEI) contributing to comic sales b) older nostalgic collectors who have the means to pay for high priced variants. Therefore, LCS' can buy large comic qtys and sell enough regular issues and their expensive variants to make it.

If the above holds true, this does not seem sustainable.

1) Decline in comic movies will affect demand for comics: Fatigue for comic movies is setting in and we'll see a decline. As much as I'd love VEI movies to be blockbusters, it is more likely that this will not happen due to lack of mainstream interest and overcrowding. Comic sales will surely suffer.

2) Comics are not the preferred medium for 15 to 30 year olds: Their interests are digital entertainment and in spending their money on other things (ie experiences vs expensive comics). These readers are important as it is essential to sell a qty of the 500 comics of one issue the LCS' just bought. Also add in that the industry is moving to graphic novels with many readers.

Once demand shrinks due to the above, the overall industry and this variant craze will suffer. Thus, prices go down. That's the bubble I'm worried about. This is all excluding the possibility of any type of future recession. Thoughts?

My point: Sell now and wait for 5-8 years to find all these cool metal variants cheaper? It just feels like a peak right now before a final decline of the month comic format.

Sorry for the grim view. Am I off?

Or can hard core Valiant Fans prop up the VEI variant market for years to come! :-)


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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by nycjadie »

I don't think the same dynamics are at play. People aren't buying multiple copies for investment purposes. I think it's a few passionate collectors who like the limited books. There will likely be a few passionate collectors for a long, long time, as there always have been for Valiant.

Personally, I'm cutting back on the limited books significantly. Family stuff and all that. Still, I'll likely splurge on the occasional Variant.

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by TheeBaldMoose »

I actually think Valiant is the perfect storm that fixes the perfect storm.

Items worth collecting above just the metal variants are in such a limited supply, that many many collectors will pay top dollar to get them. Simply put, there isn't enough in production to go around. With around 1% in the market, there just isn't enough copies of the first appearance of Livewire (Harbinger #3 1:20) for all of the collectors out there to get one. Let's say that Valiant grows to just 5% of the market, That latter 4% will still be seeking those same hard to find variants that we all search for, thus driving the market upwards. Supply vs demand here, the market grows. Same can be said regarding the X-O, Bloodshot, and soon the Ninja-K book. Still just a little better than 1% market, and growing. Growth occurs, the number of sought after books don't, value increases.

Even though many of the younger generations are not buying hard copies, those electronic copies are just as important. It creates readers, and as they get older, some will transition to having hard-copy books in their hands (be it deluxe, slabbed, or raws). This again creates markets. Think about it, now that you've grown up, don't you want to collect a few of the toys you grew up with? The Video game era started killing their market, then rebounded. The toy market is booming! Hard comics may follow suit.

There may be a bubble with the top 2, as they do saturate the market with their stuff. Valiant doesn't have the market to saturate. They may saturate it now, but with the way they are growing, it won't look saturated.
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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by aj583 »

I like the thought process. Then we are talking about the niche of Valiant comics continuing to thrive because of limited inventory and growing demand.

At a macro level, it looks like print continues to grow, but this includes paperbacks and graphic novels, so I still worry that hard core collectors are influencing larger comic purchase runs from LCS' to get their 1 variant copy at a high price.

Is Valiant showing good year over year growth and do folks believe that they will continue to attract new customers through what they are building?



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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by Juki »

Does anyone know how many of the 2 metal covers there are? (X-O and Bloodshot)

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by Elveen »

I'm 99.9% sure the xo one was printed to match the number needed.

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by Dr. Solar »

Elveen wrote:I'm 99.9% sure the xo one was printed to match the number needed.
+1
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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by TheeBaldMoose »

Wasn't there a conversation around the X-O Manowar Metals being around 200ish total printed? Unclear regarding the Bloodshot print range, but I would think there were less, as I have seen fewer on Ebay (not that is the tell-all).
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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by corey »

Elveen wrote:I'm 99.9% sure the xo one was printed to match the number needed.

pretty sure in another thread this was proven wrong.

ill see if i can find the thread

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by DirtbagSailor »

Every few weeks (here, google+, facebook, CGC forums, etc), a thread or comment is made about a "bubble" forming wrt the Valiant (or comics in general) market. I have observed discussions on this for years.

HOWEVER, several of the MOST EXPENSIVE Valiant sales (EVER) have occurred in the past two years.

There was the Bloodshot #0 Pink that went for $5,150 and two Bloodshot #0 Platinum that averaged approx. $3,000 ea. DMG books, Kotoki Error, Brushed Metal Variants, and ALL have sold in the four digits. The Solar Man of the Atom #3 (and #5) Gold Prototypes just sold for $3,000 and $1,600 respectively.

Perhaps there is; or perhaps there is not a bubble forming. Perhaps the entire comic industry will soon come to an end. Perhaps it won't. :?

What I DO know is that the Valiant Market is the most active and strongest that it has been in the past 25 years, and is continuing to grow and expand.

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by aj583 »

Sorry to rehash old threads. It does help to hear the perspectives. I’m not sure examples of high sales for extremely rare variants points to a strong Valiant market. To me, this services the hardcore collector niche and is not representative.
I went back and read some threads on disappointing overall monthly Valiant sales (save for X-O). This overall trend is what causes me pause on where prices are right now for key books. Long term, Valiant comic sales needs to keep growing to increase demand and keep prices up.
I think the movie plans will be critical in the big picture.


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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by 777Peralta »

If you fear a comic bubble start investing in orginal artwork......best bet hands down!

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by TheeBaldMoose »

aj583 wrote:Sorry to rehash old threads. It does help to hear the perspectives. I’m not sure examples of high sales for extremely rare variants points to a strong Valiant market. To me, this services the hardcore collector niche and is not representative.
I went back and read some threads on disappointing overall monthly Valiant sales (save for X-O). This overall trend is what causes me pause on where prices are right now for key books. Long term, Valiant comic sales needs to keep growing to increase demand and keep prices up.
I think the movie plans will be critical in the big picture.


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See, I see this and wonder about collectors. This is the perfect storm, so to say. If sales dips a little, and it's more likely that they have held their ground (Valiant has almost always garnered around 1% of sales), then I wonder when/if (I choose when) the movies hit, aren't these (all) variants going to go through the roof simply because of supply/demand?

I think if you follow the "word of mouth" or the "trend thought" of sales slipping for Valiant, you fail to look at the entire picture. Note that none of the pre-order sales are included in ANY of those figures, not a single issue. Now, let's say that the pre-order issues equal roughly 25% of sales (add 25% to "their" reported figures), don't the numbers look pretty good? Maybe that's too big, maybe it's 15%, but that's still a nice number that was never added. Now, let's add Comixology and other online subscriptions. Those numbers don't get reported, yet aren't they just as valuable to Valiant's overall market? Another 10% increase on sales? My numbers may be a little flawed, but my logic isn't. The pre-order and online readers STILL want those PHYSICAL variants in their hands. Take a look on Ebay, when was the last time you saw a Harbinger Renegade #6 or #7 1:50 out there? And this is supposed to be Valiant's weakest book!!! Why is the XO Manowar #6 1:50 (and there is only one right now) selling for $75? It's simple, they are still collectible/desirable.

It's easy to look at a spread sheet, look at statistical numbers and say "Whoa is me! Valiant is failing", and I am assuming those outside of Valiant who claim this bubble bursting, or "end of the world" for Valiant, but take a look around first.

The demand is there, simply look around for one. If they are selling for less than what DCBS sells, then people are trying to dump, but they aren't. Demand is high, prices have risen on many of the current collectible issues.

Sorry, :rant: is now over
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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by possumgrease »

Where are we in the boom and bust cycle of the comic industry? Boom times: early 40s, mid 60s, late 80s/early 90s. Has there been another boom since then?

I love the industry and the medium, but I don’t know if we’ll ever seen a substantive amount of new readers or collectors.

I think we’re in the Walking Dead age for more reasons than one.

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by nycjadie »

This.

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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by kjjohanson »

Sort of on topic: considering the result on this Bloodshot throwback cover, do you think the other throwbacks would be worth about the same?:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Bloodshot-25-2 ... 7675.l2557" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Bubble Forming that will affect Valiant Variant Prices?

Post by drmirage »

If you look at the bid history for this item. We can assume that it took only two bidders who are willing to pay $200+ for this to end where it did. The 3rd highest bidder only was willing to pay $55.55.

If a similar book we’re to be auctioned. It will most likely not sell as high as this unless we have another pair of bidders who will pay $200+ for this book.

e***l(1314)
$205.50
Sep-11-17, 17:27:18 PDT

w***y(1899)
$203.00
Sep-11-17, 17:27:23 PDT
a***0(113)

$55.55
Sep-05-17, 18:37:54 PDT
kjjohanson wrote:Sort of on topic: considering the result on this Bloodshot throwback cover, do you think the other throwbacks would be worth about the same?:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Bloodshot-25-2 ... 7675.l2557" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


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