Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

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DirtbagSailor
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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by DirtbagSailor »

superman-prime wrote:bc does have a lot of good stuff from HK (found good stuff up there and seattle z0my guess is it came over as people left before the hand off to china ??
Yes. There was a lot of uncertainty in the mid/late 90s about what was going to happen and how things would play out, so a lot of Hong Kong residents began to invest in property in the Pacific North West (Vancouver and Seattle).

I suspect that those that re-located brought many of their possessions with them, as it only makes sense.

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by DirtbagSailor »

greg wrote:
kjjohanson wrote:If you're going to go with the Quantum & Woody (1997) Retailer Review as the first appearance, then shouldn't the Retailer Review of Savage #1 be considered the first appearance as well?
I don't think Retailer Reviews should (ever) count as first appearances. Collecting comics as a "regular person" is about collecting the comics that are available to a "regular person". Anything that is retailer-specific, not solicited for regular customers, and purposefully intended to get retailers to "order the real thing" can't itself be "the real thing". It's a preview by definition. Retailers get to see the characters before the customers can officially start collecting them.

The market may have previews that sell for more money than the first (regular) appearances, but that's usually a reflection of book scarcity, not "true" first appearances.
Spawn #1 (all one million of them) are the true first appearance of Spawn. Previews of Spawn like Rust #1 or Malibu Sun #13 aren't first appearances of Spawn. They're advertisements to get retailers excited to order the real thing. The real thing is Spawn #1. Rust #1 or Malibu Sun #13 might sell for more than Spawn #1, but that's not because they're the first appearance. It's because there are fewer of them.

Same story here.
Greg is quite correct in that previews ARE NOT the 1st appearance of a given character; however, for speculation purposes they can certainly be a thing depending on quantities and/or demand of course.

If given the choice between a NM+ copy of Spawn #1 vs Malibu Sun #13, I would 100% take the Malibu Sun #13 as I know that NM+ copies of Spawn #1 are going to be more easy for me to obtain than NM+ copies of Malibu Sun #13. The same is (sort of) true for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 vs Gobbledygook #1. This one is a bit harder because they are BOTH incredibly difficult to locate in ANY grade or condition; however Gobbledygook #1 is simply less common.

Of course as a collector I will want a full set of any series that I decide to focus on, which is where scarcity comes into play. I may have 99% of a series, but be completely unable to locate that "ONE BOOK" in the grade or condition I desire it; if I can find it at all!

In instances like this, some collectors are MORE than willing to break the bank to get what they want and complete their collection(s) despite otherwise comparable significance.

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by superman-prime »

i have not seen a copy of tmnt 1 or rook in a long time probably phx comic con 2 years ago otherwise rerity is crazy on them price is pretty stong for a good reason but how much higher can they go?

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by geocarr »

Since Q&W were mentioned I searched all current CGC and CBCS eBay listings for the Q&W Retailer Review and Q&W #1 and neither are listed as the 1st appearance of Q&W on any of the labels I could see. :?
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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by IMJ »

If you really plan on dropping a grand for speculation of Valiant comics, then I have to point out a few things happening in this thread, and I am doing so in the interests of your plan.

First, all of the ideas here are really good ones when it comes to finding scarce books and so-on. For example, Dirtbag Sailor had some great thoughts about books that I have never considered (such as the Hong Kong editions, super interesting stuff there).

However, much of the input here is drifting significantly away from the basic premise of your post. You have to remember that when it comes to market speculation, you will have to look at the wider market rather than with any tunnel vision from the perspective of a purely Valiant-focused community. Covey said it best - begin with the end in mind.

And so, in order to bank on the kind of market interest that you will need as a speculation exit strategy, you will have to remember that a bubble of buyers comes into play from outside the realm of monthly comic buyers. In ten years, if any Valiant properties are household names, and the market grows to outside of the Valiant niche, then the biggest market segment you are going to have will actually come from those people whose only knowledge is "I saw Bloodshot in a movie and he is awesome. I'd like his first appearance comic book". Those people, and even the comic market at large are not going to say "I want the Hong Kong edition of such and such (by the way, I am not intentionally picking on DS's post - actually it's the opposite in that the depths he went with his knowledge of Valiants availability is perfect for illustrating my point is all). For that matter, it's unlikely that the wider market penetration you need will care about Retailer Review books either.

If you are really going to drop a thousand dollars on Valiant comics for future value and sale speculation, that means you are looking for an end-buyer market, which will have to be bigger than the current Valiant niche for your plan. And so, I stick with my original suggestion which is based on your own, supplied premise, keep it simple and buy the highest graded set of first appearance books you can. Almost anything else for a grand is too deep a cut and will keep your speculation growth and sales in the niche market, which is otherwise very small and somewhat useless for your plan.

Of course, ten years from now maybe the most obscure book from somewhere in this thread will pop and be worth thousands and I will be wrong in saying don't buy it now with your money. But let's face it, that's the gamble you take and it's an unlikely one. Lastly, even if that happens, then that also means it's likely that the conservative picks (e.g., high grade 1sts) will have also increased and therefore the suggestion I've illustrated here will still be best. Worst case scenario - none of these books will pop outside of the niche market at all.
Last edited by IMJ on Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:53:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by superman-prime »

extreamly nice post above

the one book and only that i spec in is walking dead i buy 20 a month every month at 65 percent cover and thin later on as hits start showing up this has worked for 6 years plus even common hero books will pull this off as long as buy in cost is kept low like new 51 issue ones of the classics went nuts real quick

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by jmatt »

IMJ wrote:you will have to look at the wider market rather than with any tunnel vision from the perspective of a purely Valiant-focused community. Covey said it best - begin with the end in mind.

And so, in order to bank on the kind of market interest that you will need as a speculation exit strategy, you will have to remember that a bubble of buyers comes into play from outside the realm of monthly comic buyers. In ten years, if any Valiant properties are household names, and the market grows to outside of the Valiant niche, then the biggest market segment you are going to have will actually come from those people whose only knowledge is "I saw Bloodshot in a movie and he is awesome. I'd like his first appearance comic book".
QFT. Stick with first appearances of the pillars and major backup characters.

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by drmirage »

Best way I would spend $1,000 on VEI;

I will strictly pre order: 1:50 variants @ $35 ea.

For this scenario, I will avoid the 1:20's... and even the 1:25's..... stick to just the 1:50's and you can get 28x copies. Avoid the gold books.. 1:500 and 1:250..

I'll steer clear from #1 issues and books which are heavily promoted #1 issues like Bloodshot Reborn, X-O Manowar (2017).. etc Higher print run variants have lower values than the low print runs.

Keep the 9.8 candidates and re-sell rejects at cost + shipping. (rinse repeat)

This is what I had done back in 13-14.

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by corey »

drmirage wrote:Best way I would spend $1,000 on VEI;

I will strictly pre order: 1:50 variants @ $35 ea.

For this scenario, I will avoid the 1:20's... and even the 1:25's..... stick to just the 1:50's and you can get 28x copies. Avoid the gold books.. 1:500 and 1:250..

I'll steer clear from #1 issues and books which are heavily promoted #1 issues like Bloodshot Reborn, X-O Manowar (2017).. etc Higher print run variants have lower values than the low print runs.

Keep the 9.8 candidates and re-sell rejects at cost + shipping. (rinse repeat)

This is what I had done back in 13-14.
Where did you find the preorder for 35 a pop I want those lol

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Re: Best way to spend 1000 dollars for speculation

Post by drmirage »

Impulse Creations

http://www.valiantfans.com/forum/viewto ... 50#p815192" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


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