Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

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Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by nycjadie »

I've noticed that the Harby 1 9.8 price point is going down, with at least 3 recent sales in the $720-730 range. Lots of best offer prices listed in the $800s, but obviously sold for much less. I've been noticing a trend down, when this book would regularly sell in the $900s, or higher. If this continues, it could be in the $600s again. Before the movie news, this book was selling at a record low of $350ish.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by IMJ »

nycjadie wrote:I've noticed that the Harby 1 9.8 price point is going down, with at least 3 recent sales in the $720-730 range. Lots of best offer prices listed in the $800s, but obviously sold for much less. I've been noticing a trend down, when this book would regularly sell in the $900s, or higher. If this continues, it could be in the $600s again. Before the movie news, this book was selling at a record low of $350ish.
Could be an example of the market seeing many more available copies.
Years of hoarders where the market wouldn't see a 9.8 often changing hands, but now people unloading to coincide with the movie news. The added "supply" might be giving buyers more options. Just a thought.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by magnus20009 »

Harbinger 1 seems to go through cycles and it is not that rare of a book in 9.8. I remember when it first cracked $1,000 and then a ton of copies flooded the market and the price fell to around $400 (I picked up my copy for $450 in a ComicLink auction). Even when copies have been listed at high prices I think there have also been sales at more reasonable prices. I think the same thing happens with Solar 10.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by greg »

magnus20009 wrote:Harbinger 1 seems to go through cycles and it is not that rare of a book in 9.8. I remember when it first cracked $1,000 and then a ton of copies flooded the market and the price fell to around $400 (I picked up my copy for $450 in a ComicLink auction). Even when copies have been listed at high prices I think there have also been sales at more reasonable prices. I think the same thing happens with Solar 10.
Harbinger #1 is quite rare in CGC 9.8 graded before 2009. :D Since that time, it has become almost common. It's my opinion that what changed wasn't the quality of submissions but the standards for CGC 9.8.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by sonicdan »

Remember this CGC ad? I always thought it was awesome they used Harbinger 1 in their advertisement!
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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by agent_graves »

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by Rai-fan »

I think supply and demand has balanced out (for now).

Movie speculation necessarily leads to more copies submitted, and thus a greater number of 9.8s.

In the case of Harbinger 1, I've been arguing about this with ZWH (RMA on the CGC boards) for *years* (like, the original movie announcement). He took/takes the position that the common bindery defect with Harbinger 1 meant we'd *never* see more than a few hundred 9.8s, even with an exponential increase in submissions with the movie announcement.

I took the opposite position, and said we'd see no fewer than 400 9.8s (up from 220 in early summer 2015) by the time the movie is released.

We're not there yet, with the census currently showing 357 universal + 26 signature = 383 so far, but there's no doubt in my mind that we'll get there.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by ckb »

Rai-fan wrote:I think supply and demand has balanced out (for now).

Movie speculation necessarily leads to more copies submitted, and thus a greater number of 9.8s.

In the case of Harbinger 1, I've been arguing about this with ZWH (RMA on the CGC boards) for *years* (like, the original movie announcement). He took/takes the position that the common bindery defect with Harbinger 1 meant we'd *never* see more than a few hundred 9.8s, even with an exponential increase in submissions with the movie announcement.

I took the opposite position, and said we'd see no fewer than 400 9.8s (up from 220 in early summer 2015) by the time the movie is released.

We're not there yet, with the census currently showing 357 universal + 26 signature = 383 so far, but there's no doubt in my mind that we'll get there.
What's killing the predictions like this (including mine) IMO is the changing grading standards/philosophy and the prevalence and ease of improvement services. I made similar predictions 15 years ago and stand by them in principal. I can't remember what I put the number at... ~200 9.8s with a most-ever max of ~500? I stand by whatever numbers I opined back then if CGC was grading like they were in 2005. But I am sure you are right in "reality" and that the count will increase to what you predict.

ZWH and I agreed on this one over the years. It does happen occasionally. :-)

What has never happened is the mythical untouched case that blows out the census all at once. At least we have no indication this has happened. And in a lot of discussions back in the day that was the clearest argument for a high census count on this book.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by Rai-fan »

Fair.

I knew guys back in the day who had "untouched cases" of X-O # 1 (like 200+ NM copies around Jan. 1993), but *never* early Harbingers.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by Rai-fan »

Fair.

I knew guys back in the day who had "untouched cases" of X-O # 1 (like 200+ NM copies around Jan. 1993), but *never* early Harbingers.

All things being equal, though, I'd rather have a 9.8 Solar 10. Haven't looked up the value in 20 years, but that *seemed* like the tough book back in '92-93. My inner teen would love it today.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by agent_graves »

Rai-fan wrote:Fair.

I knew guys back in the day who had "untouched cases" of X-O # 1 (like 200+ NM copies around Jan. 1993), but *never* early Harbingers.

All things being equal, though, I'd rather have a 9.8 Solar 10. Haven't looked up the value in 20 years, but that *seemed* like the tough book back in '92-93. My inner teen would love it today.
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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by StarBrand »

One just closed auction style at $789 including shipping.
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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by Funcha »

My last one sold a week and a half ago at $900. The Paramount news frankly doesn't give me much faith Harbinger will be getting out of development hell anytime soon.

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Re: Harbinger 1 9.8 Price Changes

Post by mkj »

I picked up my first 9.8 for $750 two weeks ago. Was listed for $1200. I'm happy with the purchase. It may go down some more but I don't plan on selling anytime soon.


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