Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

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Surfertso
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Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by Surfertso »

Can anyone explain the price discrepancy between 9.8 vs 9.6.
There are just 3 times more 9.6 than 9.8 but
the price of a 9.8 is 8x that of a 9.6? What am I missing?

Here are the CGC census stats:

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 157
Near Mint + 9.6 468

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greg
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Re: Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by greg »

There are probably a few things causing the 8-to-1 price discrepancy for CGC 9.8 price vs CGC 9.6:

1) Buyers really want 9.8 for 1990s comics, actively avoiding Not-9.8 (though that is changing for high demand issues).
2) The CGC Census ratio of 9.6 to 9.8 is 3-to-1, but the ratio of Not-9.8 to 9.8 is closer to 7-to-1.
3) A lot of the CGC pricing ratios were set 10 or 12 years ago and the census for 9.6 to 9.8 used to be 7-to-1 (and Not-9.8 to 9.8 was closer to 11-to-1).
4) If there are 170+ collectors/dealers who'd like to own CGC 9.8 Solar #10, there aren't enough on the CGC Census (yet).

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Re: Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by ckb »

5) There is a near-0 chance of "upgrading" a 9.6 to a 9.8 on that book

While Greg is entirely correct in the factors he pointed out, I submit that #5 is absolutely the biggest factor. :-)

Surfertso
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Re: Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by Surfertso »

Great response guys. I have a 9.6 and need to upgrade before it's really out of range

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greg
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Re: Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by greg »

ckb wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 4:51:10 pm 5) There is a near-0 chance of "upgrading" a 9.6 to a 9.8 on that book

While Greg is entirely correct in the factors he pointed out, I submit that #5 is absolutely the biggest factor. :-)
It would have been expensive to test, but I suspect that CGC standards for 9.8 have changed over time and some upgrades were possible at different points in CGC history.

The grading standard changes were pretty obvious for Harbinger #1.
Starting around 2009, the 9.8 was almost "easy" compared to Harbinger #1 pre-2009 CGC.

In 2009, CGC graded 41 copies of Solar #10 and awarded 15 CGC 9.8s (over 36%).
Between June 2016 and July 2018, CGC graded 233 copies of Solar #10 and awarded 47 CGC 9.8s (over 20%).

When you remove those two periods of CGC "outliers" (2009 and mid-2016-to-mid-2018), CGC 9.8 has occurred only 10% of the time for Solar #10.

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Re: Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by nycjadie »

This is a really tough book to get in 9.8. Compared to the print run, other books are far more plentiful(even Harbinger 1, which is also difficult to grade in 9.8).

Similarly, 9.6a are difficult to grade. The corners on these very thick books are often cut wonky, leaving spine splits or tears. The book easily corner blunts in bags. Finger prints are easily seen and difficult to remove. Pressing is not feasible.

You also have the 2nd print, which I suspect dilutes the number of 9.8s.

I’ve never been able to submit a 9.8 raw, but I have received 9.6s. I do have 9.8a of both the 1st and 2nd print.

I have personally inspected and screened hundreds of candidates for this book, and owned about a dozen slabs. I believe that with this book, which is very thick and has several common manufacturing defects, I believe that CGC is inconsistent in how it graded this book. I’ve seen 9.8s with corner issues, and I’ve seen 9.6s with what I see are none. Sure, there might be other issues with the individual books that are not obvious, but this isn’t my first rodeo either. I think that, bottom line, CGC is simply inconsistent on grading this difficult book, and since it is a key and much coveted, the pricing is in response to the scarcity (whether it makes sense or not).

Surfertso
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Re: Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by Surfertso »

Thank you for your wonderful insight. I totally missed the point that some (or many) of the 9.8s could actually be 2nd prints and add the inconsistent grading truly makes this a tough book.

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Re: Solar 10 cgc 9.8 vs 9.6 price discrepancy

Post by greg »

I think the CGC Census numbers in this discussion are correct. CGC separates the 2nd print pretty easily (unlike other books they mix up).

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/search/publi ... iants/yes/


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