Harbinger 1 Up For Grabs In CGC 9.8

[Draco]

Given all the points made by longstanding and knowledgeable board members, i have to say im gonna listen to whats been said and take good note.

I have been retailing for 20+ years and collection for over 30, but as im in the UK the information available here without the internet is minimum.

Thankfully i am well versed in most aspects of the industry as i live eat and breathe comics.
However the information here is a source from which i continue to learn and i have to say big kudos to all the guys here who know their stuff and share it in a non elitist & patrontising way.

most cool of you all.

cheers

Ian

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I still believe that Harbinger 1, compared to the print ruin, is still the hardest book by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade.

I agree, but there are certainly books that give it a run for its money....

Solar #10 comes to mind. Same essential print run (though no coupons to mangle the book with), and same census.

However...there ARE harder books by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade...specifically Vintage Magnus #1 (8), #2 (3), #3 (2), and #4 (5).

I didn't check the census, are there other books that are that rare in 9.8?

[worldsbestcomics]

I still believe that Harbinger 1, compared to the print ruin, is still the hardest book by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade.

I agree, but there are certainly books that give it a run for its money....

Solar #10 comes to mind. Same essential print run (though no coupons to mangle the book with), and same census.

However...there ARE harder books by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade...specifically Vintage Magnus #1 (8), #2 (3), #3 (2), and #4 (5).

I didn't check the census, are there other books that are that rare in 9.8?

Those are the scarcest pre-Unity books.

[x-omatic]

I still believe that Harbinger 1, compared to the print ruin, is still the hardest book by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade.

I agree, but there are certainly books that give it a run for its money....

Solar #10 comes to mind. Same essential print run (though no coupons to mangle the book with), and same census.

However...there ARE harder books by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade...specifically Vintage Magnus #1 (8), #2 (3), #3 (2), and #4 (5).

I didn't check the census, are there other books that are that rare in 9.8?

I don't agree with how hard it is to get a 9.8 for the Vintage magnus books. I have found many more high grade VM books than Harbinger 1. I simply don't buy them when I see them.

By the numbers
VM 1 14 books graded. 8 are 9.8
VM 2 8 books graded 3 are 9.8
VM 3 12 books graded 2 are 9.8
VM 4 10 books graded 5 are 9.8

Harbinger 1 298 graded only 12 9.8
76 in 9.6
97 in 9.4
56 in 9.2

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I still believe that Harbinger 1, compared to the print ruin, is still the hardest book by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade.

I agree, but there are certainly books that give it a run for its money....

Solar #10 comes to mind. Same essential print run (though no coupons to mangle the book with), and same census.

However...there ARE harder books by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade...specifically Vintage Magnus #1 (8), #2 (3), #3 (2), and #4 (5).

I didn't check the census, are there other books that are that rare in 9.8?

I don't agree with how hard it is to get a 9.8 for the Vintage magnus books. I have found many more high grade VM books than Harbinger 1. I simply don't buy them when I see them.

By the numbers
VM 1 14 books graded. 8 are 9.8
VM 2 8 books graded 3 are 9.8
VM 3 12 books graded 2 are 9.8
VM 4 10 books graded 5 are 9.8

Harbinger 1 298 graded only 12 9.8
76 in 9.6
97 in 9.4
56 in 9.2

Ok, a couple of things....

1. I agree, just looking at the numbers, as a PERCENTAGE of submissions, Harby #1 is rarer than VM.

2. HOWEVER....Harby #1 is also "worth a lot more" than VM, so it's going to be submitted in higher quantities in LOWER GRADES than VM.

3. There is only one Guardians of the Galaxy #30 on the census (thought that getting a 9.9 was my only motivation? Ha! Now I have an EXAMPLE!)...but it's 9.8. Does that therefore mean that it's an easy book to get in 9.8? Dunno, cause it's worthless. Same with VM.

4. VM HAS been submitted in much, much higher quantities than what is on the census...but we don't see that because pre-screened copies that are rejected don't show up on the census. Harby #1 isn't rejected because it's not sent in as part of a pre-screen as much AND people are happy with it being "lower grade." How many of those VMs, had there been no pre-screen, would be on the census? Maybe a lot more. The benefit of pre-screening VM is obvious. The benefit of pre-screening Harby #1, not so much.

Now, you can make the case that #1, #2, and #4 are not scarcer in absolute terms than Harby #1. But #3....all other things being equal, and VM submitted in the same quantities as Harby #1, without benefit of a pre-screen....may, in fact, be rarer in 9.8.

Now, why anyone would pass up VM...especially considering how cheap it is...in potential 9.8 is beyond me... #1 last sold for $112, #2 for $305! #3 has NEVER SOLD in public, and #4 a $105 book....why you would pass up potential 9.8s for what, $1? 50 cents? $2?....is beyond me.

[x-omatic]

I still believe that Harbinger 1, compared to the print ruin, is still the hardest book by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade.

I agree, but there are certainly books that give it a run for its money....

Solar #10 comes to mind. Same essential print run (though no coupons to mangle the book with), and same census.

However...there ARE harder books by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade...specifically Vintage Magnus #1 (8), #2 (3), #3 (2), and #4 (5).

I didn't check the census, are there other books that are that rare in 9.8?

I don't agree with how hard it is to get a 9.8 for the Vintage magnus books. I have found many more high grade VM books than Harbinger 1. I simply don't buy them when I see them.

By the numbers
VM 1 14 books graded. 8 are 9.8
VM 2 8 books graded 3 are 9.8
VM 3 12 books graded 2 are 9.8
VM 4 10 books graded 5 are 9.8

Harbinger 1 298 graded only 12 9.8
76 in 9.6
97 in 9.4
56 in 9.2

Ok, a couple of things....

1. I agree, just looking at the numbers, as a PERCENTAGE of submissions, Harby #1 is rarer than VM.

2. HOWEVER....Harby #1 is also "worth a lot more" than VM, so it's going to be submitted in higher quantities in LOWER GRADES than VM.

3. There is only one Guardians of the Galaxy #30 on the census (thought that getting a 9.9 was my only motivation? Ha! Now I have an EXAMPLE!)...but it's 9.8. Does that therefore mean that it's an easy book to get in 9.8? Dunno, cause it's worthless. Same with VM.

4. VM HAS been submitted in much, much higher quantities than what is on the census...but we don't see that because pre-screened copies that are rejected don't show up on the census. Harby #1 isn't rejected because it's not sent in as part of a pre-screen as much AND people are happy with it being "lower grade." How many of those VMs, had there been no pre-screen, would be on the census? Maybe a lot more. The benefit of pre-screening VM is obvious. The benefit of pre-screening Harby #1, not so much.

Now, you can make the case that #1, #2, and #4 are not scarcer in absolute terms than Harby #1. But #3....all other things being equal, and VM submitted in the same quantities as Harby #1, without benefit of a pre-screen....may, in fact, be rarer in 9.8.

Now, why anyone would pass up VM...especially considering how cheap it is...in potential 9.8 is beyond me... #1 last sold for $112, #2 for $305! #3 has NEVER SOLD in public, and #4 a $105 book....why you would pass up potential 9.8s for what, $1? 50 cents? $2?....is beyond me.

What would make you think that people haven't used the pre-screen for Harbinger 1? At least for 9.6 or above.

I just looked at my copies of VM 1-4. I am confident I have a 9.8 in 1,2,3. At least a 9.6 in number 4. But I also only have 4 copies. The reason I pass on the book is simple, I don't care about it enough to get additional copies.
I have 15 copies of #1, 9 of #2, 5 of #3, and 4 of #4.

The next time I send books to CGC I will get them graded.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I still believe that Harbinger 1, compared to the print ruin, is still the hardest book by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade.

I agree, but there are certainly books that give it a run for its money....

Solar #10 comes to mind. Same essential print run (though no coupons to mangle the book with), and same census.

However...there ARE harder books by Valiant to get in 9.8 grade...specifically Vintage Magnus #1 (8), #2 (3), #3 (2), and #4 (5).

I didn't check the census, are there other books that are that rare in 9.8?

I don't agree with how hard it is to get a 9.8 for the Vintage magnus books. I have found many more high grade VM books than Harbinger 1. I simply don't buy them when I see them.

By the numbers
VM 1 14 books graded. 8 are 9.8
VM 2 8 books graded 3 are 9.8
VM 3 12 books graded 2 are 9.8
VM 4 10 books graded 5 are 9.8

Harbinger 1 298 graded only 12 9.8
76 in 9.6
97 in 9.4
56 in 9.2

Ok, a couple of things....

1. I agree, just looking at the numbers, as a PERCENTAGE of submissions, Harby #1 is rarer than VM.

2. HOWEVER....Harby #1 is also "worth a lot more" than VM, so it's going to be submitted in higher quantities in LOWER GRADES than VM.

3. There is only one Guardians of the Galaxy #30 on the census (thought that getting a 9.9 was my only motivation? Ha! Now I have an EXAMPLE!)...but it's 9.8. Does that therefore mean that it's an easy book to get in 9.8? Dunno, cause it's worthless. Same with VM.

4. VM HAS been submitted in much, much higher quantities than what is on the census...but we don't see that because pre-screened copies that are rejected don't show up on the census. Harby #1 isn't rejected because it's not sent in as part of a pre-screen as much AND people are happy with it being "lower grade." How many of those VMs, had there been no pre-screen, would be on the census? Maybe a lot more. The benefit of pre-screening VM is obvious. The benefit of pre-screening Harby #1, not so much.

Now, you can make the case that #1, #2, and #4 are not scarcer in absolute terms than Harby #1. But #3....all other things being equal, and VM submitted in the same quantities as Harby #1, without benefit of a pre-screen....may, in fact, be rarer in 9.8.

Now, why anyone would pass up VM...especially considering how cheap it is...in potential 9.8 is beyond me... #1 last sold for $112, #2 for $305! #3 has NEVER SOLD in public, and #4 a $105 book....why you would pass up potential 9.8s for what, $1? 50 cents? $2?....is beyond me.

What would make you think that people haven't used the pre-screen for Harbinger 1? At least for 9.6 or above.

No, I didn't say that. Not at all.

I said that Harby #1 benefits more from a LOW pre-screen, or even NO pre-screen, than does VM, simply because the book is "worth more" than VM across the board.

There are 102 Harby 1s, or almost 1/3, at 9.2 or below. Who would pre-screen at 9.2 or below? CERTAINLY the 46 copies in 9.0 and below weren't pre-screened.

Have Harby #1s been pre-screened? Of course!

But clearly, there have been 100+ that were NOT pre-screened, and were just "submitted."

I theorize....meaning, I don't have any information to PROVE this, but it's a strong theory....that percentage wise, VMs have been pre-screened much, much more heavily than Harby #1, simply because VM isn't WORTH anything below 9.8/9.6.

That is, 1000 copies have been considered for submission to CGC for Harby #1, only, say, 700 of them would be put through CGC's pre-screen...we know at least 102 probably weren't considered for a pre-screen, because who would set the pre-screen at 9.2?...

....whereas, if 200 copies of VM #1-4 have been considered for submission, 199 of them will have been put through CGC's pre-screen....because a Harby #1 in 9.4 is still worth more than the grading fee....but a VM #1 is not.

Understand, I'm totally making those numbers up out of thin air, and have nothing to support them other than my own observation and theorizing....but I'll bet it's not far off from the truth.

I know for a FACT that several copies of 1-4 have been pre-screened by CKB because he said so, and he also said he didn't get by with most (all?) of them.

I just looked at my copies of VM 1-4. I am confident I have a 9.8 in 1,2,3. At least a 9.6 in number 4. But I also only have 4 copies. The reason I pass on the book is simple, I don't care about it enough to get additional copies.

Ok, but you and I both know that's bad logic. Considering the market for 9.8, it's just not smart to pass up potential 9.8s. If you can buy a book for $1 or $2 or $3, and slab it for, let's say, $20 all told, and then sell it for $100, $200, $300....please tell me why you wouldn't do that? If YOU don't want to take advantage of the 9.8 market, *I* certainly will. I will take all your potential 9.8 candidates for $5 each. That's 25 times what raw copies are worth anyways.

I have 15 copies of #1, 9 of #2, 5 of #3, and 4 of #4.

The next time I send books to CGC I will get them graded.

Good luck!

[gavster]

I just looked at my copies of VM 1-4. I am confident I have a 9.8 in 1,2,3. At least a 9.6 in number 4. But I also only have 4 copies. The reason I pass on the book is simple, I don't care about it enough to get additional copies.
I have 15 copies of #1, 9 of #2, 5 of #3, and 4 of #4.

The next time I send books to CGC I will get them graded.

I'm looking for VM #3 &#4 graded in 9.8, let me know when you get them.

[worldsbestcomics]

I think you guys have correctly identified four of the toughest pre-Unity Valiant books in 9.8:
Harbinger 1
Solar 10
Vintage Magnus 2
Vintage Magnus 3

The Harby 1 had production problems, Solar 10 had the black cover and the Vintage Magnus books were not considered "collectible" and a sizeable portion of the small print run went straight to discount bins where there are no 9.8s. You guys have also done a great job of outlining the different ways of determining scarcity.

There is one caveat about the Vintage Magnus books and that is the low total submissions. So I would suggest adding another element to the scarcity analysis which is "trend." I think this is important for considering the scarcity of non-key books.

If you had looked at the census numbers a year or so ago (when I did because I was starting my pre-Unity run), you would have found no VM 2 or 3. You would also have found almost no Magnus 11 or 13s, very few Magnus 7 & 8, and almost no Shadowman 2 or Solar 12.

Today, that has changed. There have been a number of pre-Unity Valiants graded over the past year and the census numbers of each of these titles have doubled or tripled. That may indicate that these books are not truly scarce in 9.8 condition, but that there simply haven't been enough copies submitted to CGC (yet) to satisfy demand.

On the other hand, the census numbers for Harbinger 1 and Solar 10 have increased modestly over the past year even though those books are considered "key" and have had some splashy $1000+ public sales. I personally consider those two books to be the scarcest pre-Unity Valiants in 9.8, even though I had a harder time finding my Solar 5, Magnus 13, Harby 6 and VM 2 & 3.

Three other non-key Valiants that you hadn't mentioned yet but I think might be legitimately scarce in 9.8 are Solar 4 & 5 and Harbinger 6. They have not seen the census population growth of some of the other issues that I mentioned.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

I think you guys have correctly identified four of the toughest pre-Unity Valiant books in 9.8:
Harbinger 1
Solar 10
Vintage Magnus 2
Vintage Magnus 3

The Harby 1 had production problems, Solar 10 had the black cover and the Vintage Magnus books were not considered "collectible" and a sizeable portion of the small print run went straight to discount bins where there are no 9.8s. You guys have also done a great job of outlining the different ways of determining scarcity.

There is one caveat about the Vintage Magnus books and that is the low total submissions. So I would suggest adding another element to the scarcity analysis which is "trend." I think this is important for considering the scarcity of non-key books.

If you had looked at the census numbers a year or so ago (when I did because I was starting my pre-Unity run), you would have found no VM 2 or 3. You would also have found almost no Magnus 11 or 13s, very few Magnus 7 & 8, and almost no Shadowman 2 or Solar 12.

Today, that has changed. There have been a number of pre-Unity Valiants graded over the past year and the census numbers of each of these titles have doubled or tripled. That may indicate that these books are not truly scarce in 9.8 condition, but that there simply haven't been enough copies submitted to CGC (yet) to satisfy demand.

On the other hand, the census numbers for Harbinger 1 and Solar 10 have increased modestly over the past year even though those books are considered "key" and have had some splashy $1000+ public sales. I personally consider those two books to be the scarcest pre-Unity Valiants in 9.8, even though I had a harder time finding my Solar 5, Magnus 13, Harby 6 and VM 2 & 3.

Three other non-key Valiants that you hadn't mentioned yet but I think might be legitimately scarce in 9.8 are Solar 4 & 5 and Harbinger 6. They have not seen the census population growth of some of the other issues that I mentioned.

I agree with you and xomatic completely in this way: in ABSOLUTE terms, amongst all potential and already graded copies, at this moment in time, there are probably fewer Solar 10s and Harby 1s in 9.8...again, at this snapshot in time....than there are VM #2, and maybe #3.

Of course, then you add all the variables, and the picture rapidly gets warped, with print run, key status, production, etc. You're completely right about trends, which is as important, if not the most important, as any other variable under consideration. One of the most respected coin values publications is called "Trends" for a reason.

As for Solar #4, absolutely...that's been talked about for years as a really tough book to get.

The ultimate reality, of course, is that the census only presents us with a hint, a suggestion, a trend, rather than a complete picture. I've said this before, and it's still important: coins have been graded for 22 years now, and it's only in the last 5 or so that the census gives us a really full, rounded picture of what exists in what grades. It took 15 year for there to be "enough" submissions to get a really clear picture of extant issues.

CGC has only been around since (1999) 2000, and the census only since 2002(?), so it's going to be quite some time before we get a really clear picture about what exists in what grades. Oh, sure, we have a good idea for books like Hulk #181....but that's just one of thousands, maybe millions, of books in existence.

[Jrdawg]

Is that Rico with the 910 bid?

[X-O HoboJoe]

Is that Rico with the 910 bid?

Oh no, Rico will bid much higher than that.

[superman-prime]

Im sure thats rico and im betting around 1200

[StarBrand]

Im sure thats rico and im betting around 1200

You can do an advanced search, then click on items by bidder, then type in the bidder's id and find specifically what a particluar bidder is bidding on at the moment. That function still works.

[*SQUEE*]

Solar 4 is also a very hard book to get in 9.8. If you have one for sale let me know

[Jrdawg]

No new bids in a while. IMO, bad ending time for this on a Sunday night, very late.

[Smashey]

No new bids in a while. IMO, bad ending time for this on a Sunday night, very late.

On a book like this, the bidding wont take place until last minute. Everyone thats going to bid already has their snipes up. Ending time on this makes no difference. Last I looked there were almost 700 views. Whoevers in on it, are already ready to go. Cant wait to see the outcome.

[superman-prime]

lots and lots of money

[IanAlexavier]

Wow, its really going to get up there..

Ive also learned something about grading.. as you notice in the picture of this book you can see the internal pages stick out past the cover.. I was thinking that this type of flaw(?) would drop the grade of the book. I guess not.. I need to get some of mine graded!!!

[Smashey]

I think they consider it a manufacturing defect and does not affect the condition of the book. Myself, I wouldnt pay top dollar for a 9.8 mis cut harby 1.

I also wouldnt pay top dollar for an uncentered 9.8 Rai 3, guess thats just me though.

[mrwoogieman]

Over $1,500!! Still 2+ hours!!

[Smashey]

And actually wont be surprised at all if it were to hit $1500

I called that shizzle

[Smashey]

Kickin yourself for bidding instead of hitting BIN for $1000 when we saw it right as it was listed Starbrand?

I would of hit it in a heartbeat if I had the funds available at the time, to turn it over. But, had no way of possibly paying for it.

[Smashey]

A raw NM Harby 1 just sold auction style for $50 even. The seller had a 98% feedback rating.

ZWH----Time to submit some of your hoard

[StarBrand]

Kickin yourself for bidding instead of hitting BIN for $1000 when we saw it right as it was listed Starbrand?

I would of hit it in a heartbeat if I had the funds available at the time, to turn it over. But, had no way of possibly paying for it.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't second-guessing myself a bit. I have my own ways of doing business on eBay and they precluded such an action, though. I weighed buying it heavily for about 20 minutes.
I decided if this one went through the roof it would bring my 9.6s and 9.4s up too. Just my opinion. Hey, that's the only opinion I've got to go on.
If it still goes much higher it won't surprise me. If all key Valiants start moving up dramatically soon that won't surprise me either. I think they're all on their way.
I bought and sold about 150 Cap 25s the first week they hit and took most of my profits and put them into slabbed Valiants, so I'm thankful to have had a good last twelve months when it comes to Valiant.