May 2014 Sales Discussion
Moderators: Daniel Jackson, greg
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Always glad to see you stop by, Dino! Most of us are still waiting for the 'accurate facts' of the actual May sales numbers, but we thank you for at least invalidating the inaccuracies posted so far.dino wrote:This thread is amazing!![]()
Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless


-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
ha i didn't notice who wrote that!Phoenix8008 wrote:Always glad to see you stop by, Dino! Most of us are still waiting for the 'accurate facts' of the actual May sales numbers, but we thank you for at least invalidating the inaccuracies posted so far.dino wrote:This thread is amazing!![]()
Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless![]()

- BugsySig
- I could be talking poo-doo.
- Posts: 9554
- Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:47 pm
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Ivar, Timewalker
- Favorite title: Harbinger/Timewalker
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart/FVL
- Favorite artist: Joe Quesada
- Location: Central CT
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Completely devoid of accurate facts are the best kinddino wrote:This thread is amazing!![]()
Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless
Kurt Busiek wrote:Bull$#!t

- kjjohanson
- Now I bet you're all going to want me to drag it out and show you.
- Posts: 5005
- Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 6:52 pm
- Valiant fan since: Magnus #1
- Favorite character: Anon-Lurker
- Favorite title: Archer & Armstrong
- Favorite writer: Fred Van Lente
- Location: Astoria, NY
- Contact:
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If you're not a *SQUEE*, you're okay with me.
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
It's gonna be one'a those months!kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.

-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
- leonmallett
- My mind is sharp. Like a sharp thing.
- Posts: 9470
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:39 am
- Valiant fan since: 2006
- Favorite character: Shadowman (Hall version)
- Favorite title: Shadowman (under Hall)
- Favorite writer: Fred Van Lente
- Favorite artist: Clayton Henry
- Location: hunting down paulsmith56 somewhere in the balti belt...
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way!kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.

VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Challenge Accepted.leonmallett wrote:If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way!kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.

-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
- leonmallett
- My mind is sharp. Like a sharp thing.
- Posts: 9470
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:39 am
- Valiant fan since: 2006
- Favorite character: Shadowman (Hall version)
- Favorite title: Shadowman (under Hall)
- Favorite writer: Fred Van Lente
- Favorite artist: Clayton Henry
- Location: hunting down paulsmith56 somewhere in the balti belt...
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
It's on!Phoenix8008 wrote:Challenge Accepted.leonmallett wrote:If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way!kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.

VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong??leonmallett wrote:It's on!Phoenix8008 wrote:Challenge Accepted.leonmallett wrote:If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way!kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.

-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
- leonmallett
- My mind is sharp. Like a sharp thing.
- Posts: 9470
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:39 am
- Valiant fan since: 2006
- Favorite character: Shadowman (Hall version)
- Favorite title: Shadowman (under Hall)
- Favorite writer: Fred Van Lente
- Favorite artist: Clayton Henry
- Location: hunting down paulsmith56 somewhere in the balti belt...
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Like custard on rhubarb crumble!Phoenix8008 wrote:Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong??leonmallett wrote:It's on!Phoenix8008 wrote:Challenge Accepted.leonmallett wrote:If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way!kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.

VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Like peanut butter on jelly!leonmallett wrote:Like custard on rhubarb crumble!Phoenix8008 wrote:Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong??leonmallett wrote:It's on!Phoenix8008 wrote:Challenge Accepted.leonmallett wrote:If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way!kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
- leonmallett
- My mind is sharp. Like a sharp thing.
- Posts: 9470
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:39 am
- Valiant fan since: 2006
- Favorite character: Shadowman (Hall version)
- Favorite title: Shadowman (under Hall)
- Favorite writer: Fred Van Lente
- Favorite artist: Clayton Henry
- Location: hunting down paulsmith56 somewhere in the balti belt...
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
On it like Sonic!Phoenix8008 wrote:Like peanut butter on jelly!leonmallett wrote:Like custard on rhubarb crumble!Phoenix8008 wrote:Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong??leonmallett wrote:It's on!Phoenix8008 wrote:Challenge Accepted.leonmallett wrote: If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way!
VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Game on!leonmallett wrote:On it like Sonic!Phoenix8008 wrote:Like peanut butter on jelly!leonmallett wrote:Like custard on rhubarb crumble!Phoenix8008 wrote:Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong??leonmallett wrote:It's on!Phoenix8008 wrote: Challenge Accepted.
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
- Ramses818
- Rockin' out in Torquehalla
- Posts: 2449
- Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:46 pm
- Valiant fan since: X-O Manowar 14
- Favorite character: Rai
- Favorite title: X-o but maybe soon to be Rai
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Favorite artist: Clayton Crain
- Location: Southern California
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
We need no stinking facts! (With bad 80's Russian accent he said!) lol 

-
- My posts can all fit in a short box
- Posts: 162
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 9:56 am
- Valiant fan since: Free Comic Book Day 2014
- Favorite character: Ninjak
- Favorite title: Harbinger/Imperium
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Favorite artist: Trevor Hairsine
- Location: Texas
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
These numbers seem to be more anticipated that the monthly jobs report. I will wager a guess that they are nearly identical to the numbers from April and we will hear the same arguments that we heard last month. Half of the posters will think Valiant is doing just fine (like me) and half will think that Valiant won't be able to publish Armor Hunters 4 before closing up their shop.
- Ramses818
- Rockin' out in Torquehalla
- Posts: 2449
- Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:46 pm
- Valiant fan since: X-O Manowar 14
- Favorite character: Rai
- Favorite title: X-o but maybe soon to be Rai
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Favorite artist: Clayton Crain
- Location: Southern California
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Oh man WWise you had to go and derail the thread with something serious before we got to page 4?!
. In all seriousness VEI looks to be doing fine. They know what they are doing and they haven't wavered at all...in 3 years! People have perceptions and beliefs of what they think is "facts" and will act accordingly. Me? I love the books and enjoy chatting with the people at the conventions so I will keep doing that, because when it comes down to it, it is their business and we are along for the ride. As to the Flipside of that argument Acclaim said everything was fine, until they stopped publishing. Like I said I will just keep enjoying Rai
and let these guys handle their own business and help where and when they want me to.


- cjv
- A Valiant Vision-ary
- Posts: 4344
- Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2004 7:31 am
- Valiant fan since: Shadowman #1
- Favorite character: Armstrong
- Favorite title: Shadowman (VH1)
- Location: Rio Grande Valley
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Upward trend?
So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.
Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)
Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG
Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may not know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.
Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growth curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growth (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growth down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).
Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG
So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).
Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG
Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.
Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)
Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG
Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may not know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.
Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growth curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growth (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growth down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).
Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG
So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).
Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG
Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
Last edited by cjv on Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Gak! Posted in wrong thread!?
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
-
- My posts can all fit in a short box
- Posts: 162
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 9:56 am
- Valiant fan since: Free Comic Book Day 2014
- Favorite character: Ninjak
- Favorite title: Harbinger/Imperium
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Favorite artist: Trevor Hairsine
- Location: Texas
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Wow cjv...wow! That is the most scientific, well-reasoned, and frankly disturbing posts I have ever read. I salute you!
I have grossly underestimated this community's affection for Valiant comic books.

I have grossly underestimated this community's affection for Valiant comic books.
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?cjv wrote:Upward trend?
So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.
Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)
Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG
Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.
Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).
Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG
So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).
Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG
Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
- leonmallett
- My mind is sharp. Like a sharp thing.
- Posts: 9470
- Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:39 am
- Valiant fan since: 2006
- Favorite character: Shadowman (Hall version)
- Favorite title: Shadowman (under Hall)
- Favorite writer: Fred Van Lente
- Favorite artist: Clayton Henry
- Location: hunting down paulsmith56 somewhere in the balti belt...
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
Good point!Phoenix8008 wrote:Gak! Posted in wrong thread!?

VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month
- BugsySig
- I could be talking poo-doo.
- Posts: 9554
- Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:47 pm
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Ivar, Timewalker
- Favorite title: Harbinger/Timewalker
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart/FVL
- Favorite artist: Joe Quesada
- Location: Central CT
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.Phoenix8008 wrote:So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?cjv wrote:Upward trend?
So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.
Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)
Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG
Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.
Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).
Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG
So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).
Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG
Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
Kurt Busiek wrote:Bull$#!t

Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
don't worry, cjv forgot to carry the one.BugsySig wrote:That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.Phoenix8008 wrote:So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?cjv wrote:Upward trend?
So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.
Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)
Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG
Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.
Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).
Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG
So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).
Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG
Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
- Phoenix8008
- I don't know about a power, but I keep hearing these weird tones from the radio
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:49 am
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Aric
- Favorite title: Harbinger
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart
- Location: Florida, USA
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
I read it all, I just can't access the charts from my work computer, so I couldn't SEE if his charts were trending upward as well or not.BugsySig wrote:That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.Phoenix8008 wrote:So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?cjv wrote:Upward trend?
So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.
Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)
Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG
Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.
Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).
Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG
So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).
Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG
Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)
- BugsySig
- I could be talking poo-doo.
- Posts: 9554
- Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:47 pm
- Valiant fan since: 1992
- Favorite character: Ivar, Timewalker
- Favorite title: Harbinger/Timewalker
- Favorite writer: Joshua Dysart/FVL
- Favorite artist: Joe Quesada
- Location: Central CT
Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion
WE NEED MORE CHARTS!!!! MORE CHARTS, I SAY!!!!Phoenix8008 wrote:I read it all, I just can't access the charts from my work computer, so I couldn't SEE if his charts were trending upward as well or not.BugsySig wrote:That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.Phoenix8008 wrote:So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?cjv wrote:Upward trend?
So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.
Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)
Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG
Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.
Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).
Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG
So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).
Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG
Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
Kurt Busiek wrote:Bull$#!t
