May 2014 Sales Discussion

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Phoenix8008
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

dino wrote:This thread is amazing! :lol:

Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless :high-five:
Always glad to see you stop by, Dino! Most of us are still waiting for the 'accurate facts' of the actual May sales numbers, but we thank you for at least invalidating the inaccuracies posted so far. :thumb: :clap:
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by ilzuccone »

Phoenix8008 wrote:
dino wrote:This thread is amazing! :lol:

Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless :high-five:
Always glad to see you stop by, Dino! Most of us are still waiting for the 'accurate facts' of the actual May sales numbers, but we thank you for at least invalidating the inaccuracies posted so far. :thumb: :clap:
ha i didn't notice who wrote that! :lol:

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by BugsySig »

dino wrote:This thread is amazing! :lol:

Completely devoid of accurate facts but amazing nonetheless :high-five:
Completely devoid of accurate facts are the best kind
Kurt Busiek wrote:Bull$#!t
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by kjjohanson »

We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If you're not a *SQUEE*, you're okay with me.

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
It's gonna be one'a those months! :roll:
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by leonmallett »

kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way! :D
VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

leonmallett wrote:
kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way! :D
Challenge Accepted. 8-)
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by leonmallett »

Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way! :D
Challenge Accepted. 8-)
It's on! :thumb:
VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way! :D
Challenge Accepted. 8-)
It's on! :thumb:
Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong?? :o
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by leonmallett »

Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way! :D
Challenge Accepted. 8-)
It's on! :thumb:
Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong?? :o
Like custard on rhubarb crumble! :thumb:
VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month

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Phoenix8008
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
kjjohanson wrote:We're on page 3 without actual numbers.
If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way! :D
Challenge Accepted. 8-)
It's on! :thumb:
Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong?? :o
Like custard on rhubarb crumble! :thumb:
Like peanut butter on jelly!
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)

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leonmallett
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by leonmallett »

Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote: If we keep posting enough, we can easily make it to page 4 before those pesky figures get in the way! :D
Challenge Accepted. 8-)
It's on! :thumb:
Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong?? :o
Like custard on rhubarb crumble! :thumb:
Like peanut butter on jelly!
On it like Sonic!
VEI - I look forward to you one day publishing MORE than 9-10 books per month

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Phoenix8008
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
leonmallett wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote: Challenge Accepted. 8-)
It's on! :thumb:
Is it on like King Kong playing ping pong?? :o
Like custard on rhubarb crumble! :thumb:
Like peanut butter on jelly!
On it like Sonic!
Game on!
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Ramses818 »

We need no stinking facts! (With bad 80's Russian accent he said!) lol :P

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by wwise03 »

These numbers seem to be more anticipated that the monthly jobs report. I will wager a guess that they are nearly identical to the numbers from April and we will hear the same arguments that we heard last month. Half of the posters will think Valiant is doing just fine (like me) and half will think that Valiant won't be able to publish Armor Hunters 4 before closing up their shop.

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Ramses818 »

Oh man WWise you had to go and derail the thread with something serious before we got to page 4?! :o . In all seriousness VEI looks to be doing fine. They know what they are doing and they haven't wavered at all...in 3 years! People have perceptions and beliefs of what they think is "facts" and will act accordingly. Me? I love the books and enjoy chatting with the people at the conventions so I will keep doing that, because when it comes down to it, it is their business and we are along for the ride. As to the Flipside of that argument Acclaim said everything was fine, until they stopped publishing. Like I said I will just keep enjoying Rai :cloud9: and let these guys handle their own business and help where and when they want me to.

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by cjv »

Upward trend?

So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.

Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)

Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG

Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may not know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.

Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growth curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growth (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growth down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).

Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG

So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).

Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG

Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
Last edited by cjv on Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:16 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

Gak! Posted in wrong thread!?
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by wwise03 »

Wow cjv...wow! That is the most scientific, well-reasoned, and frankly disturbing posts I have ever read. I salute you! :high-five:

I have grossly underestimated this community's affection for Valiant comic books.

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

cjv wrote:Upward trend?

So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.

Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)

Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG

Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.

Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).

Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG

So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).

Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG

Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)

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leonmallett
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by leonmallett »

Phoenix8008 wrote:Gak! Posted in wrong thread!?
Good point!

:P
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by BugsySig »

Phoenix8008 wrote:
cjv wrote:Upward trend?

So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.

Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)

Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG

Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.

Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).

Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG

So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).

Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG

Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?
That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.
Kurt Busiek wrote:Bull$#!t
Image

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by ilzuccone »

BugsySig wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
cjv wrote:Upward trend?

So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.

Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)

Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG

Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.

Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).

Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG

So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).

Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG

Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?
That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.
don't worry, cjv forgot to carry the one.

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Phoenix8008
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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by Phoenix8008 »

BugsySig wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
cjv wrote:Upward trend?

So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.

Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)

Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG

Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.

Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).

Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG

So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).

Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG

Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?
That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.
I read it all, I just can't access the charts from my work computer, so I couldn't SEE if his charts were trending upward as well or not.
-Phoenix8008 (a.k.a. Charticus!)
Viva la Valiant!
(moderator of r/Valiant subreddit)

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Re: May 2014 Sales Discussion

Post by BugsySig »

Phoenix8008 wrote:
BugsySig wrote:
Phoenix8008 wrote:
cjv wrote:Upward trend?

So I saw the graph on the first page being described as an upward trend. A trend implies an overall average, and I was curious if the data represented on the graph truly was an upward trend or not. Caveat - I did not pull the raw numbers from the actual print runs, but basically extrapolated rough estimates from the graph. As such, my monthly sales number I used for the analysis should be close to the actual value, but may be off by a little.

Thinking about this, I started with a linear regression. Plugging the data in and doing a linear regression gets a definite positive sloped line that is significant (p = 0.0021, for those that know and care about such thinks). The r-square is okay (0.355). In statistics, an r-square of 1 means the data perfectly fits the projects line. An r-square of 0 means that the line does not predict data values at all. (I will see if I can put a graph in)

Link to the graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/nr6ri2571gpubcx/linear.JPG

Then I thought a little more about the implications of a linear fit. A linear fit implies there is no boundary to the line - in this case, it would mean that sales figures would keep increasing and increasing forever (eventually becoming larger than the population of the earth, given enough time). This is somewhat unrealistic. In reality, there is some sort of upper level limit. We may now know what it is, but at the very least the upper limit would be something like the population of the earth. In reality, the upper limit for all comics sold (not just VEI) would probably be based on the disposable income available to people buying comic book throughout the world. Now, the upper limit could change. We have people who have never bought a comic before buying one, we have people who have grown out of the hobby, we have people whose disposable income situation may change, price changes may influence how many comics someone can by. So the upper limit may be flexible, but at any given time, there is an upper limit to the number of issues that can be sold (or all comic books). Within all comic books sold, each company has an upper limit at any given time related to the issues mentioned above, but also to things like how many titles they are making, how good their titles are compared to other companies, etc.

Thinking about this, it sounds like population growth in biology (my area of research). The environment influenced how many total individuals can exist (in this case, total individuals is comics sold, and environment includes things like disposable income). In addition, species interactions will influence the outcome (in this case, interactions are between the different comic book companies). The nice thing about population biology is that even if we don't know all the variables, we can use existing data to predict the population limit (often referred to as "K", or carrying capacity). The growht curves that describe population growth in this model are called logistic curves. (I will try to put a logistic curve in later). Depending where you are on the growth curve, you can easily say that the population is increasing its growht (towards the begining of the curve), slowing the growht down (as it approaches the carrying capicty), or stable (if it has reached the carrying capacity).

Link to a logistic curve graph - https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ckzrh4vcm9zpf0/logistic.JPG

So fitting a logistic curve to the data might give us a better indication as to what is going on. When we fit this model, we can see that the number of comics sold is still increasing, but it is increasing up to a maximum number (given current conditions). That maximum number is about 85,000. Yes, VEI sold more than that sometimes, but after they did in the past, the numbers dropped back down. (This can happen with population growth - populations may exceed the carrying capacity, but then, assuming conditions haven't changed, they drop back down).

Link to VEI logistic fit - https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxim1jmkwwqk4 ... gistic.JPG

Obviously we are looking at a small sample size (2 years) and there can be any number of events that might change the "carrying capacity" for VEI comics, including things as simple as spreading the word about Valiant. But, given the situation right now and assuming there aren't any major changes to VEI or the market as a whole, I estimate that they will fluctuate around 85,000 issues sold for the foreseable future. (Major changes could include a movie deal, change in sales numbers to other companies, major press about new releases, etc.)
So, what you're saying is 'upward trend'=True. Right?
That's what I got out of it. Of course, I didn't actually read it. Try adding some art and word balloons and maybe I'll give it a shot.
I read it all, I just can't access the charts from my work computer, so I couldn't SEE if his charts were trending upward as well or not.
WE NEED MORE CHARTS!!!! MORE CHARTS, I SAY!!!!
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