My VEI 1st Appearance Investment Thoughts - By the numbers

[nycjadie]

Always appreciate Tim's work on publication numbers (pulled from here: http://www.valiantfans.com/forum/viewto ... =1&t=45452" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;).

These are my opinions on what I've seen in the market, what I think are the key VEI first appearances, along with publication numbers.

Harbinger 1 (1st Bleeding Monk) 32,111 - Lots of interesting variants. Gold takes the cake, but there's the QR variant, lots of multiple printings and dollar variants. Great potential on this book, but lots of different books to focus the collector. I'm a bull on this one, but there is no clear break away winner.

Ninjak 1 (1st Roku) 24,351 - I think the jury is out on Roku. I'm neutral. Time will tell.

Harbinger Wars 1 (1st Cronos) 18,729 - This one could pop, and we're already seeing super high prices on raw variants. These are going to be sought after until we know for sure THERE WON'T be a movie. Who knows? Movie decisions can change, and if Harbinger gets shelved, it's possible that these books will plummet in value. Prices are so high, and the downward potential so great, I'm a bear. Still, I'm going to pull my books for potential grading.

Harbinger 2 (1st Darpan) 17,239 - One creepy character. We'll see if he gets more action. Relatively high printing for VEI. There is a 1:20 variant that could get some serious action at some point. Book quality on this issue makes a 9.8 extremely tough. I'm bullish on this one given the pricing.

Harbinger 5 (1st Renegades) 14,603 - I'm very bullish on this one. Renegades could blow up, get their own book, cartoon, whatever. It's got kid appeal. No variants on this one beyond the pullbox (the regular has the better cover). Still a tough find in 9.8. Good investment, in my opinion. Total bull on this one, but it's a long hold.

Archer 6 (1st Kay McHenry) 12,642 - I really liked this character. Without adding spoilers, I'm negative on this one for now... Bear.

Divinity 1 (1st Abram) 12,079 - Love this book. It grades high, it's highly sought after, especially the 1:40. I had 3 of them, and sold one 9.8. I halfway regret it. I think there is still some upward potential on this one, even as they sell for $500! Great book. Still a bull, but the majority of the gains are already made there.

X-O Manowar #19 (1st Unity Team) 11,744 - Arguably, this is the first appearance of the Unity team. This is a real first appearance. While there was a Unity title in V1, there was not team. One little factoid, V1 X-O 19 was the first appearance of the Armorines. There is a regular and pullbox of this issue, along with a 1:30. Very little inventory on the 1:30. I haven't seen one for sale in some time. I'm neutral on this, but if Unity gets a new title, with a little bit of buzz, this issue could skyrocket, in my opinion. It has sleeper potential.

Bloodshot 9 (1st Generation Zero) 10,959 - This is the first appearance of the Gen Zero kids (and I believe the Nursery as well). There is a regular edition, and a 1:20 variant. I think ByGrandDesign is right, this one has great potential, especially if we see a Harbinger Wars movie. The 1:20 would be the copy to chase. High grade copies are tough to find on this condition sensitive book. Only 1 sold 1:20 in eBay in the last 3 months. My guess is a lot of upward potential on this book. Bull.

Divinity 3 (1st cosmonauts) 9,582 - Again, this one is even more interesting. The book you want is the 1:20. It's a relatively easy 9.8. I see raws in the $200s, and a 9.8 will set you back nearly twice that potentially. This is the speculation book, and I'm leaning on this being a good bet. I'm bullish, but this could trend downward in a big way. I'd love a 2nd print in 9.8. Still looking for one (hint hint).

Shadowman 13 (1st Punk Mambo) 9,403 - This book was the first in the reboot in the line. People didn't love this book, but I liked it. However, it is the first Punk Mambo. Personally, I think she has Constatine-like potential. She needs an amazing write to bring her a bit more to life and give her a first epic fable. Van Meter has done wonders for Mirage (admittedly, a 2nd rate V1 character), and I think she could for Mambo as well. I'm very bullish on this one. The regular and pullbox are cheap. The 1:20 scarce. The 1:50 raw is astronomical. (Reminds me that I need to pull my copies for grading). I'm a bull, with the exception of the variants, which I view as already being at top of market.

The Valiant 4 (1st Tama) 8,795 - Love this series. Love it. Love the cardstock and presentation. I love the 1:20 Kindt variants. The only thing I think could have been better were the covers for the 1:50 issues. In any event, Tama looks to be a key character in the Valiant Universe and issue 4 is her first appearance. The book grades high. It's not hard to get a 9.8. There is a regular edition, 1:20, 1:50, character variant and a Hastings exclusive. My money is on the 1:50. Unfortunately, a creasing flaw seems to be common in this book, and I haven't found a 9.8 candidate. They do exist though, and that's going to be on my want list. I also think the Hastings variant is going to be sought after. The cover isn't as nice as the others, but the Hastings variants can be hard to find in high grade. The 1:50 cover is in my view the best of the 4, and is the grail. Still a bull.

Thoughts are welcome!

Edits in bold.

[jmatt]

Love it!

I'm still a big believer that all of the new characters we see in Imperium #1-4 will be in demand at some point.

And VEI Harbinger #3, first Livewire, warrants a strong mention.

[bygranddesign]

I'm a huge BULL for Harbinger Wars #1 -- I think its the official intro to Generation Zero (although Bloodshot stumbles on some of the kids first)

I think a Gen Zero title is going to happen eventually ... and I think Cronos and Telic have the potential to be exciting, pivotal characters in the universe.

I'm also a BULL on Shadowman #13 ... and Punk Mambo #0. Pretty low print runs for both. It's CLEAR that she is a character that VEI wants to push. She is a fun character who I think has a lot of appeal. I think the supernatural corner of the universe is going to get its big summer of Valiant spotlight (maybe 2017?) And I can only see Punk Mambo getting more popular...

I also think Sunlight on Snow has some great long term appeal -- and Imperium is such an incredible title that many are missing the boat on. I could definitely see that title getting major love in the future ... and the low print run thoughout the series will mean big back issue prices..

[greg]

Harbinger 5 (1st Renegades) 14,603 - I'm very bullish on this one. Renegades could blow up, get their own book, cartoon, whatever. It's got kid appeal. No variants on this one beyond the pullbox (the regular has the better cover). Still a tough find in 9.8. Good investment, in my opinion. Total bull on this one, but it's a long hold.

I'm not sure I understand this one as "1st Renegades".

Pete, Kris, and Faith appear earlier than #5. Flamingo and Torque appear later.

[nycjadie]

Love it!

I'm still a big believer that all of the new characters we see in Imperium #1-4 will be in demand at some point.

And VEI Harbinger #3, first Livewire, warrants a strong mention.

I left VEI reboots out for the most part. We haven't seen any increase on reboot first appearances yet. You never know. The VEI Livewire is very different than V1, but I still see Harbinger 15 as her first appearance.

[nycjadie]

I'm a huge BULL for Harbinger Wars #1 -- I think its the official intro to Generation Zero (although Bloodshot stumbles on some of the kids first)

I think a Gen Zero title is going to happen eventually ... and I think Cronos and Telic have the potential to be exciting, pivotal characters in the universe.

I'm also a BULL on Shadowman #13 ... and Punk Mambo #0. Pretty low print runs for both. It's CLEAR that she is a character that VEI wants to push. She is a fun character who I think has a lot of appeal. I think the supernatural corner of the universe is going to get its big summer of Valiant spotlight (maybe 2017?) And I can only see Punk Mambo getting more popular...

I also think Sunlight on Snow has some great long term appeal -- and Imperium is such an incredible title that many are missing the boat on. I could definitely see that title getting major love in the future ... and the low print run thoughout the series will mean big back issue prices..

I think Gen Zero is worth adding. I'll revise accordingly.

[nycjadie]

Harbinger 5 (1st Renegades) 14,603 - I'm very bullish on this one. Renegades could blow up, get their own book, cartoon, whatever. It's got kid appeal. No variants on this one beyond the pullbox (the regular has the better cover). Still a tough find in 9.8. Good investment, in my opinion. Total bull on this one, but it's a long hold.

I'm not sure I understand this one as "1st Renegades".

Pete, Kris, and Faith appear earlier than #5. Flamingo and Torque appear later.

I think consensus on other threads is that they grouped together at the end of Harby 5 (i.e. birth of the Renegades), but YMMV. I'm open to revising.

[Elveen]

Love it!

I'm still a big believer that all of the new characters we see in Imperium #1-4 will be in demand at some point.

And VEI Harbinger #3, first Livewire, warrants a strong mention.

I left VEI reboots out for the most part. We haven't seen any increase on reboot first appearances yet. You never know. The VEI Livewire is very different than V1, but I still see Harbinger 15 as her first appearance.

I disagree. Totally different character. I can see people pushing VH1 Livewire, but no way.
Totally different character.

I could be wrong, but so many differences.

[nycjadie]

If the market agrees, that would make VEI Harbinger 3 the first appearance of the new Livewire. There is a regular and a 1:20 variant for that issue. Not a lot of action yet with that issue, but I think that's a market supply issue, in part. Definitely possible.

[Elveen]

If the market agrees, that would make VEI Harbinger 3 the first appearance of the new Livewire. There is a regular and a 1:20 variant for that issue. Not a lot of action yet with that issue, but I think that's a market supply issue, in part. Definitely possible.

There will be.

[Elveen]

If the market agrees, that would make VEI Harbinger 3 the first appearance of the new Livewire. There is a regular and a 1:20 variant for that issue. Not a lot of action yet with that issue, but I think that's a market supply issue, in part. Definitely possible.

There will be.

and I'm not saying this cause i have a stock of them. I think I have A copy.

[Ramses818]

If the market agrees, that would make VEI Harbinger 3 the first appearance of the new Livewire. There is a regular and a 1:20 variant for that issue. Not a lot of action yet with that issue, but I think that's a market supply issue, in part. Definitely possible.

There will be.

and I'm not saying this cause i have a stock of them. I think I have A copy.

I will say it for you! I have a stock because I bought them knowing that this character was going to be big! She even replaced another character who at one time was poised to be big (Mary Maria I think deserves attention. She had a solo origin book, and was replaced by Livewire on Unity. I still think there may be big things for her!) so I think that speaks to Valiant's plan on her being big! I also agree Punk Mambo has a very bright future in store for her, and those variants are going for as much or more than the gold books! and what about the just brought back Alexander? Do you think this XO arc will be his end? He seems like a very important character because of his connection to the Vine. That's a few thoughts for now...

[Dallow Spicer1]

Love it!

I'm still a big believer that all of the new characters we see in Imperium #1-4 will be in demand at some point.

And VEI Harbinger #3, first Livewire, warrants a strong mention.

I left VEI reboots out for the most part. We haven't seen any increase on reboot first appearances yet. You never know. The VEI Livewire is very different than V1, but I still see Harbinger 15 as her first appearance.

I disagree. Totally different character. I can see people pushing VH1 Livewire, but no way.
Totally different character.

I could be wrong, but so many differences.

Are there any other examples from Marvel, DC etc whereby a re-booted character's first appearance becomes sought after? Maybe the answer to this will indicate future potential of Livewire?

To Elveen's point, Livewire is so different to the original it's a wonder they used the name at all?

[jmatt]

Are there any other examples from Marvel, DC etc whereby a re-booted character's first appearance becomes sought after?

Avengers #4. Cap.

[greg]

The situation with Livewire is similar to Nick Fury being cast as Samuel L. Jackson... except the original Livewire wasn't a headliner.

It's also similar to the new Flash in the Silver Age.

Harbinger #3 (2012) is the most important book for the current Livewire. Harbinger #15 (1993) is an earlier Livewire... the original concept... but not necessarily the best one.

[Tony_H]

Are there any other examples from Marvel, DC etc whereby a re-booted character's first appearance becomes sought after?

Avengers #4. Cap.

Also, all of DC's Silver Age reboots of their Golden Age characters: The Flash, GL, GA, the Hawks, The Spectre, etc..

[nycjadie]

We haven't seen any interest yet in the first appearances for the reboots, and I think it will be some time before we see interest in reboots of second tier characters like Livewire. Time will tell.

[greg]

Harbinger #3 1:20 variant has always had value, because it was a 1:20. I think Harbinger #3 1:20 has more value today because of Livewire.

[kjjohanson]

I'm a huge BULL for Harbinger Wars #1 -- I think its the official intro to Generation Zero (although Bloodshot stumbles on some of the kids first)

I think a Gen Zero title is going to happen eventually ... and I think Cronos and Telic have the potential to be exciting, pivotal characters in the universe.

I'm also a BULL on Shadowman #13 ... and Punk Mambo #0. Pretty low print runs for both. It's CLEAR that she is a character that VEI wants to push. She is a fun character who I think has a lot of appeal. I think the supernatural corner of the universe is going to get its big summer of Valiant spotlight (maybe 2017?) And I can only see Punk Mambo getting more popular...

I also think Sunlight on Snow has some great long term appeal -- and Imperium is such an incredible title that many are missing the boat on. I could definitely see that title getting major love in the future ... and the low print run thoughout the series will mean big back issue prices..

I think Gen Zero is worth adding. I'll revise accordingly.

Gen Zero is an interesting debate to be had, because it hasn't really been discussed what exactly Gen Zero is. Is it all of the characters that PRS was holding? If so, the first appearance isn't HW #1. That's the first appearance of the A team. But there was a cameo of some characters in Bloodshot #6, a batch of them in #7, and a bunch more in #8 & #9 before HW #1.

[Elveen]

I'm a huge BULL for Harbinger Wars #1 -- I think its the official intro to Generation Zero (although Bloodshot stumbles on some of the kids first)

I think a Gen Zero title is going to happen eventually ... and I think Cronos and Telic have the potential to be exciting, pivotal characters in the universe.

I'm also a BULL on Shadowman #13 ... and Punk Mambo #0. Pretty low print runs for both. It's CLEAR that she is a character that VEI wants to push. She is a fun character who I think has a lot of appeal. I think the supernatural corner of the universe is going to get its big summer of Valiant spotlight (maybe 2017?) And I can only see Punk Mambo getting more popular...

I also think Sunlight on Snow has some great long term appeal -- and Imperium is such an incredible title that many are missing the boat on. I could definitely see that title getting major love in the future ... and the low print run thoughout the series will mean big back issue prices..

I think Gen Zero is worth adding. I'll revise accordingly.

Gen Zero is an interesting debate to be had, because it hasn't really been discussed what exactly Gen Zero is. Is it all of the characters that PRS was holding? If so, the first appearance isn't HW #1. That's the first appearance of the A team. But there was a cameo of some characters in Bloodshot #6, a batch of them in #7, and a bunch more in #8 & #9 before HW #1.

I think Gen Zero will be the team that is showed in the "holding tubes" in Harby wars #1. I think all the kids under the care of Gamma are a different thing. I think "Gen Zero" is the kids under the leadership of Christian.

[nycjadie]

Harbinger #3 1:20 variant has always had value, because it was a 1:20. I think Harbinger #3 1:20 has more value today because of Livewire.

+1, but there isn't enough inventory or sales to make a statistical analysis. I do think it's true though.

[nycjadie]

Agree. The first team appearances in Valiant are messy.

[nycjadie]

I added X-O 19 (first Unity team).

Any thoughts on Malgam? Interesting character. I've always liked him.

[Dallow Spicer1]

I added X-O 19 (first Unity team).

Any thoughts on Malgam? Interesting character. I've always liked him.

If Reebo is still alive then he's a much more interesting character!

[Intrepidxc]

I've been trying to find a harby 3 CGC 9.8 and a punk mambo 0 CGC 9.8 forever. No dice, I seem to keep missing the few that come up for sale.