Discussion: The Valiant secondary market is...

[Zero]

Intuitively this statement is correct, but in reality I believe it is false. More demand will lower prices.

Supply is fixed, but available supply is fluid. Meaning, there may be 3-4K Unity 0 reds, but there are only a handfull in the open market at any given time. A spike in demand would cause the available supply to increase. In the short run this will increase prices, but in the longer run (ala X-O 1/2 gold) prices will decrease substantially. ~Erskine

But in the case of X-O 1/2 Gold, we saw a flood of issues coming to the market seemingly out of nowhere. One ebay seller who seemed to have an endless supply of them caused most of this. I'm just not sure if this would happen in the case of Unity Red or CEAR over the normal selling course unless a significant hidden stash of issues were to surface. Simply because a lot of people (like me) would not sell just because we see an increase in the demand.

That actually makes my point. The supply of X-O 1/2 golds did not increase, only the supply available changed. That did not change the book's rarity, it only changed the book's perceived rarity.

Higher demand will cause more of these books to be sold. True, your average collector here will not sell when demand increases, but most of these keys are still held by dealers. When dealers get more signs that these books are desirable they will pull them out & sell. More books for sale changes the supply available & (long run) lowers prices. True, everyone here has a ceiling that they will not let a book fall below (ala - Unity 0 red @ $25 a pop). What people are not realizing is that their ceiling is almost always lower than what the books are currently trading for. I never said the bottom would fall out of the market. All I stated is that prices will drop. A Unity 0 red @ $25 may not be cheap, but it is lower than the current $50 it's trading at. Just my thoughts... ~Erskine

[Daniel Jackson]

The supply of X-O 1/2 golds did not increase, only the supply available changed. That did not change the book's rarity, it only changed the book's perceived rarity.

That's true, but since it was a freak occurrence that caused the book to drop drastically in price, I'm just not sure that this analogy would work when comparing this to other books and a more normal increase in the supply.

[Unblessed]

The supply of X-O 1/2 golds did not increase, only the supply available changed. That did not change the book's rarity, it only changed the book's perceived rarity.

That's true, but since it was a freak occurrence that caused the book to drop drastically in price, I'm just not sure that this analogy would work when comparing this to other books and a more normal increase in the supply.

In the stock market, expected profit vs. actual profit AND actual loss vs. expected loss drives the value of a stock. When a stock is expected to make money and doesn't the value goes down. When a stock is expected to make money that quarter and does not make as much as expected, the value of the stock goes down...

It's freakin' fickle!

Like here in Comic Book Land, the perceived rarity vs. supply vs. demand are all driving the price of our books. I have quite a few normal books in my collection where their print runs are BELOW 3,500. (Some below 1,000.) Technically, my new comics are rarer than 99% of my Valiants. However, they can be had at cover price today at your LCS.

Where as, in the niche market of "rare" Valiant comics, people remember back to 1992/1993/1994 when these books were priced out of their grasp. Now, the books can be had for a fraction of that price. And with our small community, the seller knows where to dangle their line. Plus, there are more of you Valiant Fans than TMNT Volume 4 fans!

~Unblessed

[tcolli]

What if C A T actually spelled dog? It reminds me of that question with the responses given.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

What if C A T actually spelled dog? It reminds me of that question with the responses given.

Care to elaborate?

[Zero]

What if C A T actually spelled dog? It reminds me of that question with the responses given.

How so? What's your take? ~Erskine

[tcolli]

What if C A T actually spelled dog? It reminds me of that question with the responses given.

Care to elaborate?

Must just be me but the "good and bad at the same time" idea coupled with getting up at 5:30 to be at work by 6:30 after poker night last night has fried my brain and this seems really heavy right now. :littlesmile:

[lobo]

The 'glut' of XO 1/2 Gold seemed to be an anomaly as one supplier had temporary control of the market of that one book. They also hurt potential profitability by dumping that book and lowering its price along the way.
From my standpoint, I never had the opportunity to get in on the Canvascutie bonanza as that seller did not list auctions outside the USA and I don't bother searching auctions not available to Canada. In the last four years of buying Valiants on eBay I can tell you that finding auctions for XO 1/2 gold have been very few and far between (at least listed for sale both in the USA AND internationally). Right up there in frequency (or lack of) to CEAR auctions.
I have one copy of this book, but I wouldn't mind a few more if not to improve on the grade at least.
If you take the Canvascutie stash out of the equation, I think there would be alot more pent up demand for this book right now. There certainly is from where I'm sitting.

[Daniel Jackson]

The 'glut' of XO 1/2 Gold seemed to be an anomaly as one supplier had temporary control of the market of that one book. They also hurt potential profitability by dumping that book and lowering its price along the way.
From my standpoint, I never had the opportunity to get in on the Canvascutie bonanza as that seller did not list auctions outside the USA and I don't bother searching auctions not available to Canada. In the last four years of buying Valiants on eBay I can tell you that finding auctions for XO 1/2 gold have been very few and far between (at least listed for sale both in the USA AND internationally). Right up there in frequency (or lack of) to CEAR auctions.
I have one copy of this book, but I wouldn't mind a few more if not to improve on the grade at least.
If you take the Canvascutie stash out of the equation, I think there would be alot more pent up demand for this book right now. There certainly is from where I'm sitting.

Yeah, that was something that doesn't happen very often. The price went from almost 300 at it's peak to 36 bucks in the short period it took one seller to saturate the market. I know what you mean about the book not coming up for sale very often until this event happened. I had to get this book the same way I got my CEAR years ago. Email all the sellers I ever bought anything off of until one of them finally came through for me.

[depluto]

Everytime I see this I think of "Coffee Talk."

The Valiant secondary market is neither valiant or secondary ... discuss!

[Christopher Martin]

whatever happened to the legendary Aug002? I just checked and he is No Longer a Registered User...

[Zero]

The 'glut' of XO 1/2 Gold seemed to be an anomaly as one supplier had temporary control of the market of that one book. They also hurt potential profitability by dumping that book and lowering its price along the way.
From my standpoint, I never had the opportunity to get in on the Canvascutie bonanza as that seller did not list auctions outside the USA and I don't bother searching auctions not available to Canada. In the last four years of buying Valiants on eBay I can tell you that finding auctions for XO 1/2 gold have been very few and far between (at least listed for sale both in the USA AND internationally). Right up there in frequency (or lack of) to CEAR auctions.
I have one copy of this book, but I wouldn't mind a few more if not to improve on the grade at least.
If you take the Canvascutie stash out of the equation, I think there would be alot more pent up demand for this book right now. There certainly is from where I'm sitting.

True, the X-O 1/2 gold is a unique situation because of its extreme outcome ($300-$36). I'm not suggesting that greater demand for Valiant as a whole will cause all prices to fall this magnitude. All I'm saying is that the prices in the long term would fall *some*. Greater demand will cause short run pricing to increase & long run pricing to decrease.

Fact is, the supply of X-O 1/2 golds did not increase. Canvascutie did not (I hope) print more books. She simply increased the supply available. The supply printed is *more* than sufficient to feed demand. The problem is that dealers are holding onto these books either because they don't think they're worth the listing fee or because they're holding out for greater demand. In either event, greater demand will cause more dealers to decide to sell, supply available will increase, & long run pricing will go down.

In this hobby perceived rarity is more important than actual rarity. According to all the sources I've ever seen (including Greg's site) the Chaos Effect Omega gold is rarer than the Chaos Effect Alpha red. Why then is the red worth so much more than the gold? Perceived rarity! The red doesn't show up for sale in the open market as much as the gold, so people *believe* it's rarer. Doesn't necessarily mean that it is rarer... ~Erskine

[DawgPhan]

The 'glut' of XO 1/2 Gold seemed to be an anomaly as one supplier had temporary control of the market of that one book. They also hurt potential profitability by dumping that book and lowering its price along the way.
From my standpoint, I never had the opportunity to get in on the Canvascutie bonanza as that seller did not list auctions outside the USA and I don't bother searching auctions not available to Canada. In the last four years of buying Valiants on eBay I can tell you that finding auctions for XO 1/2 gold have been very few and far between (at least listed for sale both in the USA AND internationally). Right up there in frequency (or lack of) to CEAR auctions.
I have one copy of this book, but I wouldn't mind a few more if not to improve on the grade at least.
If you take the Canvascutie stash out of the equation, I think there would be alot more pent up demand for this book right now. There certainly is from where I'm sitting.

True, the X-O 1/2 gold is a unique situation because of its extreme outcome ($300-$36). I'm not suggesting that greater demand for Valiant as a whole will cause all prices to fall this magnitude. All I'm saying is that the prices in the long term would fall *some*. Greater demand will cause short run pricing to increase & long run pricing to decrease.

Fact is, the supply of X-O 1/2 golds did not increase. Canvascutie did not (I hope) print more books. She simply increased the supply available. The supply printed is *more* than sufficient to feed demand. The problem is that dealers are holding onto these books either because they don't think they're worth the listing fee or because they're holding out for greater demand. In either event, greater demand will cause more dealers to decide to sell, supply available will increase, & long run pricing will go down.

In this hobby perceived rarity is more important than actual rarity. According to all the sources I've ever seen (including Greg's site) the Chaos Effect Omega gold is rarer than the Chaos Effect Alpha red. Why then is the red worth so much more than the gold? Perceived rarity! The red doesn't show up for sale in the open market as much as the gold, so people *believe* it's rarer. Doesn't necessarily mean that it is rarer... ~Erskine

I dont know that people think that the CEAR is rarer, but it certainly is a better looking book..but you are right about precieved rarity and the general publics lack of understand of what that actually means...

[myron]

This thread is a great read...keep it up boys

Erskine is making some great points...I like the way he thinks.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

http://lyriacomicexchange.com/forum/vie ... sc&start=0

It gets a tad heated, but it's a good discussion about rarity, perceived or otherwise.

[DawgPhan]

http://lyriacomicexchange.com/forum/vie ... sc&start=0

It gets a tad heated, but it's a good discussion about rarity, perceived or otherwise.

nice...and while you are there read something else...there is a ton of great info on those boards..

[GGSAE]

The supply of X-O 1/2 golds did not increase, only the supply available changed. That did not change the book's rarity, it only changed the book's perceived rarity.

In the stock market, expected profit vs. actual profit AND actual loss vs. expected loss drives the value of a stock. When a stock is expected to make money and doesn't the value goes down. When a stock is expected to make money that quarter and does not make as much as expected, the value of the stock goes down...

It's freakin' fickle!

~Unblessed

I think this is kind of a simpliefied example...stock prices are consensus prices at any give time which are affected by: the past history of the stock, future expectations and most importantly human emotion. If you're looking at one particular stock from a fundamentalist perspective (earnings/p/e ratios, ect.) it's difficult to quantify value. Is the stock accurately priced at 10 times earnings? 100? 200? With the general public stocks are based on 'the good of the company'. How many times have you heard someone say, oh it's a good company, they make this and will be around forever. Terrible logic, but this is what influences most people opinions.

I think a better comparison is to look at the overall market (like an exchange sector, let's say techs) compared with a brand of books (valiants). In general the contrarian view is when most ppl are fed up with the market or not buying, that's usually the bottom. And when all you hear is hype, everyone talking about buying and being up a lot of money, you know the top is near.

[greg]

...when most ppl are fed up with the market or not buying, that's usually the bottom. And when all you hear is hype, everyone talking about buying and being up a lot of money, you know the top is near.

The question for Valiant is... which is happening now?

[wrunow]

...when most ppl are fed up with the market or not buying, that's usually the bottom. And when all you hear is hype, everyone talking about buying and being up a lot of money, you know the top is near.

The question for Valiant is... which is happening now?

I think most of the large VALIANT collectors, who are pretty much us, after a couple of years of frenzied buying multiple copies of pre unity back issues and special books are just waiting the ownership thing out. It's probably a good time to be buying if your flush, but pretty much the fate of the market is in the hands of VIP and that other little guy (I think you know who), and what happens next. I personally am optomistic, I didn't buy 30 copies of Harby 1 so I could read the book 30 times, I bought them to sell 10 when the price goes up.

[Daniel Jackson]

but pretty much the fate of the market is in the hands of VIP and that other little guy (I think you know who), and what happens next.

Hopefully it's a success, but I just wonder how everyone will react if it's not. Valiant's track record with the retailers is not good as it is. I can't imagine them supporting anymore relaunches if it isn't. Would this be the final straw for quite some time?

[SiBill]

Basically, when a few of you fine gentlemen get a life - this market will crash. I say if 5 to 6 key members of this board get really *SQUEE* off with Valiant and start dumping books, it will be 1993 all over again. Not hard to see who I mean - check the inventory list - and everyone else should start kissing their butts. Our "Valiant retirement fund" will indubitably dry up if they leave :littlesmile: Me - I'll go after Ultraverse and the other dead universes where the absolute rarest books hit 10 bucks. Some of those gold holos have print runs of 250!!! And i can get them for 3 bucks. Brother J and depluto and Dac and those other prudent "dead universe" aficionados are wise men. It is heart warming to see how much fun they derive from the chase. After all what fun is it in simply outspending each other?

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

Basically, when a few of you fine gentlemen get a life - this market will crash. I say if 5 to 6 key members of this board get really *SQUEE* off with Valiant and start dumping books, it will be 1993 all over again.

Oooo....I paid for my first semester of college selling Valiants in 1993.

That'd be great!

Market didn't drop out until mid-94. That what you mean?

Not hard to see who I mean - check the inventory list - and everyone else should start kissing their butts. Our "Valiant retirement fund" will indubitably dry up if they leave :littlesmile: Me - I'll go after Ultraverse and the other dead universes where the absolute rarest books hit 10 bucks. Some of those gold holos have print runs of 250!!!

Can you document that? I'd be really interested in that. Thanks!

And i can get them for 3 bucks. Brother J and depluto and Dac and those other prudent "dead universe" aficionados are wise men. It is heart warming to see how much fun they derive from the chase. After all what fun is it in simply outspending each other?

There isn't 1/100th the emotion associated with Ultraverse, Defiant, Broadway, etc, that there is with Valiant.

For good or for ill, Valiant INSPIRED people, and continues to inspire people. It was the perfect storm in comics, the right place, the right time, the right stuff.

There's not a single issue of Ultraverse ANYTHING that EVER sold for $100+, and yet, I can name ten Valiant books that did in my sleep.

So...if you're saying it's unwise to purchase Harbinger #1 at $50....I agree.

If you're saying it's unwise at $10-$15....how much further is it going to "crash"? $5? $1? 25 cents? It already has history of selling for much, much more. It's got WAYYY too much history, combined with a fairly limited supply, to "crash" much further than it already has.

I say this, of course, as someone who believes in books like Harbinger #1.

Eternal Warrior #1? That's a different story.

K-Mart was a penny stock at one point during bankruptcy proceedings. Know what it's at now?

That's because K-Mart was a proven entity.

So is Harb #1, and many other books in the Valiant Universe.

Do you think, if the people currently "propping" up Unity Red were to stop buying that Unity Red would come crashing down to $2?

Not on your life!

There's a LEGION (and in this case, an ACTUAL Legion) of fans out there who would be HAPPY to own this piece of Valiant history for $10, $15, $20.

I'm one of them.

I only have 1 copy. But I'm not willing to pay the $70 or so that it currently sells for. No way.

But if it were to come down to $20?

Sure! I'm there.

So there are people to "slow the crash", should it start.

[depluto]

It is fun buying the Ultraverse stuff, even though I don't expect those comics to be worth a mint. The fun part comes from chasing down all the variants, and there are a bunch.

But Sibill is right. There aren't many of us and we show a lot of courtesy, especially when we know somebody is bidding on something they need to fill out their collection. I guess that's bad for the sellers but everything stays cheap and we all get the comics we want.

One of the coolest UV sellers is Nosam2000, BTW. He used to write for Malibu and he's always pulling great stuff out of his garage or someplace.

[ZephyrWasHOT!!]

It is fun buying the Ultraverse stuff, even though I don't expect those comics to be worth a mint. The fun part comes from chasing down all the variants, and there are a bunch.

.

YESSSSSS......my precioussss.....variantssssss....

Got a list of all of them?

[jedimarley]

It is fun buying the Ultraverse stuff, even though I don't expect those comics to be worth a mint. The fun part comes from chasing down all the variants, and there are a bunch.

.

YESSSSSS......my precioussss.....variantssssss....

Got a list of all of them?

List! We want a list!