Harbinger 1 Up For Grabs In CGC 9.8

StarBrand · Post by **StarBrand** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:48 am

greg wrote:I still say CGC 9.6 is the place to be.

Average on CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has been $125.
Until tonight, that was about 10% of the 9.8 price.
Now it's about 5%.

20-copies-in-9.6-for-the-price-of-this-one-in-9.8

I agree. In fact, that could well be true on other Valiants as well. Valiant 9.6s seem underpriced to me in general. At some point the market should correct that.

Smashey · Post by **Smashey** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:49 am

I still say CGC 9.6 is the place to be.

Average on CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has been $125.
Until tonight, that was about 10% of the 9.8 price.
Now it's about 5%.

20-copies-in-9.6-for-the-price-of-this-one-in-9.8

Agreed. Especially considering that 9.8 might get a 9.6 if it were to be resubbed lol. For that kind of money, I would rather purchase an entire valiant run, including golds, vvss's and diamond tpbs

StarBrand · Post by **StarBrand** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:50 am

Smashey wrote:
I still say CGC 9.6 is the place to be.

Average on CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has been $125.
Until tonight, that was about 10% of the 9.8 price.
Now it's about 5%.

20-copies-in-9.6-for-the-price-of-this-one-in-9.8
Agreed. Especially considering that 9.8 might get a 9.6 if it were to be resubbed lol. For that kind of money, I would rather purchase an entire valiant run, including golds, vvss's and diamond tpbs

That is a good point. One book is a lot more liquid, though, and this price might seem low in five years.

StarBrand · Post by **StarBrand** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:52 am

Elveen wrote:
StarBrand wrote:Valiant continues to remind me of Marvel in the days when Marvel keys were still affordable. I'm a buyer of Valiant keys at the moment, not a seller.
Shooter was right when he said Harbinger 1 was as important as Avengers 1. It just took awhile to start showing it.

Great use of the "line".

I remember the first time I read that in Harby #1. That is really something.

I am also a buyer of Valiant keys...... and proud holder on many of them.

Smashey · Post by **Smashey** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:56 am

All depends on VEI. I cant seeing spending $2550 for it as an investment.

StarBrand · Post by **StarBrand** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:58 am

Smashey wrote:All depends on VEI. I cant seeing spending $2550 for it as an investment.

You're right. I'd rather put that much money elsewhere, like Valiant keys in CGC 9.6.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:07 am

greg wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
StarBrand wrote:Valiant continues to remind me of Marvel in the days when Marvel keys were still affordable. I'm a buyer of Valiant keys at the moment, not a seller.
Shooter was right when he said Harbinger 1 was as important as Avengers 1. It just took awhile to start showing it.
17 years is "a while"....?
What was Amazing Spider-man #1 worth when it was 16 years old?
(You've got the 1979 Overstreet handy, right?)

Why yes....yes I do.

Harbinger #1 came out in October of 1991, so in March of 2008 it is 16.5 years old.

Amazing Spiderman #1 came out in February of 1963, so by March of 1979 (rough release of Overstreet PG #9), it was $405.

$405/$.12 = 3,375 times cover price.

Let's assume, for the sake of the argument, that the OPG price of $405 for a "Mint" copy was actually a reasonable market price at the time.

So, using the same information, $50 (the current "market high" price for a raw copy)/$1.95 = 25+ times cover price.

So, no, the comparison doesn't stand.

And you cannot compare slabbed copies...which are entirely separate and unique from anything that has gone before.....to prices from 1979.

You have to compare apples to apples, not grapefruit. Back in 1979, a (what would be) 9.0 was the same price as a (what would be) 9.6, and as (what would be) 7.0.

The argument completely falls apart when you do a year-by-year comparison from date of publication.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:08 am

StarBrand wrote:
Smashey wrote:A raw NM Harby 1 just sold auction style for $50 even. The seller had a 98% feedback rating.

ZWH----Time to submit some of your hoard
ZWH is the man for having hoarded that book.

Has anyone actually....SEEN....this hoard....?

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:14 am

Smashey wrote:All depends on VEI. I cant seeing spending $2550 for it as an investment.

By the way....unless I'm completely mistaken, this has now set the record for a 1990's book, regardless of grade.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:16 am

The previous record holder was a Qualified 9.6 Bone #1 signed by Jeff Smith @ $1200.

StarBrand · Post by **StarBrand** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
Smashey wrote:All depends on VEI. I cant seeing spending $2550 for it as an investment.
By the way....unless I'm completely mistaken, this has now set the record for a 1990's book, regardless of grade.

This sale should get some press somewhere. CGC should take out a few ads highlighting it.

greg · Post by **greg** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:24 am

Smashey wrote:
greg wrote:20-copies-in-9.6-for-the-price-of-this-one-in-9.8
Agreed. Especially considering that 9.8 might get a 9.6 if it were to be resubbed

Actually, there's some interesting math that can be done here.
(Yes, I know, only a nerd would say "interesting math". Guilty as charged.)

Let's say that for any particular CGC graded book that there's a 10% chance
that it could have been graded "one step higher" or "one step lower"
if it had been submitted on some other day, some other circumstance, etc.

That would put an estimate for the CGC graders at 90% consistency
...and that is, 9 out of 10 would always grade exactly the same.

So, let's say that any particular CGC 9.6 has a 10% chance of actually being CGC 9.8-worthy,
but it also has a 10% chance of being 9.4-worthy.

Let's put 10% of the "value" at one step up, and 10% at one step down. 80% stays where it is.

If we calculate the price that a (10% 9.8) + (10% 9.4) + (80% 9.6) would be...
using the average (historical) sales figures... we can get an idea of what
a 9.6 should probably cost us. (... and 80% automatically comes from previous 9.6 sales.)

So, let's take a book like CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 (Valiant 1991, of course).

The average prices paid (12 month averages) for CGC graded Magnus #1 are:
9.8 - $81
9.6 - $23
9.4 - $13

Let's assume $7 shipping for any of these books... so...
9.8 - $88
9.6 - $30
9.4 - $20
(shipped to you)

Apply the formula to calculate a "fair 9.6 price" considering the possiblity of +/- one step grading.

(10% $88) + (10% $20) + (80% $30) = $34.80

So... my conclusion is that CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 should be worth about $34.80 (shipped to me).
That's pretty close to the $30 that CGC 9.6 has been averaging,
but I'd say the CGC 9.6 at $30 is a good deal... just barely.

Now... let's try this same experiment with CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1.

9.8 - $1,775 (the $2,550 sale, plus the $1,000 sale last year)
9.6 - $125
9.4 - $50

(10% $1,775) + (10% $50) + (80% $125) = $282.50

A CGC 9.6 is costing around $125 lately, and "could" be valued at $282.50
using the 10% +/- one step rule.
(After all, there's a 10% chance that a 9.6 might be a 9.8... just "undergraded".)

Ok, so maybe you don't buy the 10% theory.
After all... we know that 10% of Harbinger #1 books aren't 9.8.
But we're only talking about 10% of Harbinger #1 books already graded as CGC 9.6.

Let's say it should be 5%. Well, that CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 would be $32.40 instead of $34.80.
We can still buy them for around $30. Not bad.

At 5%, the CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 would be $203.75 instead of $282.50.
They've been selling for $125.

Of course, you could say... yeah, well, I think it's only a 2% chance of +/- one step.
CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 falls from $203.75 to $149. They've been selling for $125.

2% means that 49 out of 50 CGC 9.6s would still be CGC 9.6s if they were re-graded (forever).
That's probably too strict.
5% means that 19 out of 20 CGC 9.6s would still be CGC 9.6s if they were re-graded (forever).
Still too strict? Maybe.
10% means that 9 out of 10... etc.

What if you think it might only be 4 out of 5? 20% chance of +/- one step?

At 20%, CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 would calculate as $39.60.
(They sell around $30.)

...and CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 would calculate as $440.
(They have been selling around $125.)

Seen any good deals lately?

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:39 am

As far as I can find....and I admittedly didn't do THAT much research, but we KNOW the "big books" of the 1980's already (Primer #2, Albedo #2, Turtles #1, Spidey #238, 300)....

Only THREE books (Amazing #300, #238, and Turtles #1) since 1980 have sold for more money than Harbinger #1.

That's pretty rarefied air....

By the way....the $2550 sale has ALREADY been added to GPA.

Either they're REALLLLLLY fast or they're REALLLLLY automated.

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:40 am

greg wrote:
Smashey wrote:
greg wrote:20-copies-in-9.6-for-the-price-of-this-one-in-9.8
Agreed. Especially considering that 9.8 might get a 9.6 if it were to be resubbed
Actually, there's some interesting math that can be done here.
(Yes, I know, only a nerd would say "interesting math". Guilty as charged.)

Let's say that for any particular CGC graded book that there's a 10% chance
that it could have been graded "one step higher" or "one step lower"
if it had been submitted on some other day, some other circumstance, etc.

That would put an estimate for the CGC graders at 90% consistency
...and that is, 9 out of 10 would always grade exactly the same.

So, let's say that any particular CGC 9.6 has a 10% chance of actually being CGC 9.8-worthy,
but it also has a 10% chance of being 9.4-worthy.

Let's put 10% of the "value" at one step up, and 10% at one step down. 80% stays where it is.

If we calculate the price that a (10% 9.8) + (10% 9.4) + (80% 9.6) would be...
using the average (historical) sales figures... we can get an idea of what
a 9.6 should probably cost us. (... and 80% automatically comes from previous 9.6 sales.)

So, let's take a book like CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 (Valiant 1991, of course).

The average prices paid (12 month averages) for CGC graded Magnus #1 are:
9.8 - $81
9.6 - $23
9.4 - $13

Let's assume $7 shipping for any of these books... so...
9.8 - $88
9.6 - $30
9.4 - $20
(shipped to you)

Apply the formula to calculate a "fair 9.6 price" considering the possiblity of +/- one step grading.

(10% $88) + (10% $20) + (80% $30) = $34.80

So... my conclusion is that CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 should be worth about $34.80 (shipped to me).
That's pretty close to the $30 that CGC 9.6 has been averaging,
but I'd say the CGC 9.6 at $30 is a good deal... just barely.

Now... let's try this same experiment with CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1.

9.8 - $1,775 (the $2,550 sale, plus the $1,000 sale last year)
9.6 - $125
9.4 - $50

(10% $1,775) + (10% $50) + (80% $125) = $282.50

A CGC 9.6 is costing around $125 lately, and "could" be valued at $282.50
using the 10% +/- one step rule.
(After all, there's a 10% chance that a 9.6 might be a 9.8... just "undergraded".)

Ok, so maybe you don't buy the 10% theory.
After all... we know that 10% of Harbinger #1 books aren't 9.8.
But we're only talking about 10% of Harbinger #1 books already graded as CGC 9.6.

Let's say it should be 5%. Well, that CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 would be $32.40 instead of $34.80.
We can still buy them for around $30. Not bad.

At 5%, the CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 would be $203.75 instead of $282.50.
They've been selling for $125.

Of course, you could say... yeah, well, I think it's only a 2% chance of +/- one step.
CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 falls from $203.75 to $149. They've been selling for $125.

2% means that 49 out of 50 CGC 9.6s would still be CGC 9.6s if they were re-graded (forever).
That's probably too strict.
5% means that 19 out of 20 CGC 9.6s would still be CGC 9.6s if they were re-graded (forever).
Still too strict? Maybe.
10% means that 9 out of 10... etc.

What if you think it might only be 4 out of 5? 20% chance of +/- one step?

At 20%, CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 would calculate as $39.60.
(They sell around $30.)

...and CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 would calculate as $440.
(They have been selling around $125.)

Seen any good deals lately?

Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

greg · Post by **greg** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:50 am

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 2:21 am

greg wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.
My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

The ones I made up in my head as I was rolling around in money on the floor....

greg · Post by **greg** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 2:24 am

ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
greg wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.
My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?
The ones I made up in my head as I was rolling around in money on the floor....

If you hadn't sold it yet, where'd you get the money?

ZephyrWasHOT!! · Post by **ZephyrWasHOT!!** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 2:26 am

greg wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:
greg wrote:
ZephyrWasHOT!! wrote:Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.
My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?
The ones I made up in my head as I was rolling around in money on the floor....
If you hadn't sold it yet, where'd you get the money?

I didn't say where THAT money was from....or even if it was REAL money!

magnusr · Post by **magnusr** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 2:27 am

greg wrote:only a nerd would say "interesting math".

Yep, a non-nerd would realize that it's a tautology.

So... my conclusion is that CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 should be worth about $34.80 (shipped to me).

But as soon as anyone buys a 9.6 based on this reasoning, that sale can't be used as a basis for making this calculation anymore...

/Magnus

greg · Post by **greg** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 2:29 am

magnusr wrote:
greg wrote:only a nerd would say "interesting math".
Yep, a non-nerd would realize that it's a tautology.

So... my conclusion is that CGC 9.6 Magnus #1 should be worth about $34.80 (shipped to me).
But as soon as anyone buys a 9.6 based on this reasoning, that sale can't be used as a basis for making this calculation anymore...

/Magnus

I have dozens of 9.6s that I bought based on this reasoning.
You now need to ignore those.

Jrdawg · Post by **Jrdawg** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 7:09 am

2500+. Holy crap.

Escaflown4 · Post by **Escaflown4** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 8:17 am

You know...this kind of publicity might actually help promote VEI. So use it to its advantage and start posting about it on other comic forums.

R Daneel · Post by **R Daneel** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 8:31 am

Holy crap ... thank god I was not operating heavy machinery when I read Greg's math nerd post!

Elveen · Post by **Elveen** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 9:07 am

R Daneel wrote:Holy crap ... thank god I was not operating heavy machinery when I read Greg's math nerd post!

It's par for the course. The man loves #s.

greg · Post by **greg** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 9:09 am

Elveen wrote:
R Daneel wrote:Holy crap ... thank god I was not operating heavy machinery when I read Greg's math nerd post!

It's par for the course. The man loves #s.

Strangely enough, "par for the course" is the most boring number in golf.

(Unless you're the player.)