Harbinger 1 Up For Grabs In CGC 9.8

[wallywest]

Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

I agree...it's the best info we have right now. It certainly makes me think differently about upcoming purchases. There are still a ton of dealers out there who don't think Valiants are worth anything significant. I don't think the $2500+ can be considered sustainable, but I think it completely validates the $1000+ range (and may signal that this range is here to stay for quite a while...maybe for good). I see arbitrage opportunities...

[greg]

Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

I agree...it's the best info we have right now. It certainly makes me think differently about upcoming purchases. There are still a ton of dealers out there who don't think Valiants are worth anything significant. I don't think the $2500+ can be considered sustainable, but I think it completely validates the $1000+ range (and may signal that this range is here to stay for quite a while...maybe for good). I see arbitrage opportunities...

I agree that $2,500 is very unsustainable... the buyer even said he didn't think it would hold.

To be fair to ZWH's point... my formula should probably discount the $2,550 sale.

Even so, using the 10% +/- one step calculation with 9.8 at $1,000...
the calculation for a CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 comes to around $205.
That's what it would have been before the $2,550 sale.

In the past 12 months, CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has averaged $90.
The $125 number is from the past 30 days.

Either way... a bargain.

My point is that those of us who might be sad that CGC 9.8 Valiant books
are "out of our price range" should really, really consider CGC 9.6 right now.

[Dr. Solar]

Wow. That is just stupid money.

I really need to get me one of these Harbinger see jee see books.

[StarBrand]

The winning bid was placed with 17 seconds left in the auction. This brought to two the number of bids that were 2,500.00 or more at that point. Any snipes set to be placed for less than 17 seconds left in the auction would've been rendered moot and wouldn't have shown on the auction as having been placed at all, if they were under 2,500.00.
It's conceivable there were several other bids of 1,600.00+ that we don't know about. There could've been snipes set higher than 2,000.00 we'll never know about for the same reason.

[Elveen]

The winning bid was placed with 17 seconds left in the auction. This brought to two the number of bids that were 2,500.00 or more at that point. Any snipes set to be placed for less than 17 seconds left in the auction would've been rendered moot and wouldn't have shown on the auction as having been placed at all, if they were under 2,500.00.
It's conceivable there were several other bids of 1,600.00+ that we don't know about. There could've been snipes set higher than 2,000.00 we'll never know about for the same reason.

Interesting.

[Smashey]

I agree that $2,500 is very unsustainable... the buyer even said he didn't think it would hold.

\

One little factoid to throw into this theory. Gavsters winning bid was $2550. That means someone else had bid at least $2500, and didnt win, in order for that final bid to get to $2550.

I think that makes $2500 very sustainable. We know there is at least one more person out there, looking for a 9.8, and willing to pay $2500. How many more are there? Or more importantly, how many people out there that own 9.8's are going to be willing to sell them less than $2500 after seeing this one?

Given the fact that this book is not going to show up for sale again in 9.8 in god knows how long, thats going to create even more interest, and draw more attention from more investors. This sale is going to strike up alot of peoples interests. And its just going to festor because there isnt another one up. In all honesty, I dont think $2500 is going to cut it next time.

The only thing that might possibly change this is that if other 9.8 holders make their books available and want to cash in after seeing this, which might just very well happen.

[StarBrand]

The winning bid was placed with 17 seconds left in the auction. This brought to two the number of bids that were 2,500.00 or more at that point. Any snipes set to be placed for less than 17 seconds left in the auction would've been rendered moot and wouldn't have shown on the auction as having been placed at all, if they were under 2,500.00.
It's conceivable there were several other bids of 1,600.00+ that we don't know about. There could've been snipes set higher than 2,000.00 we'll never know about for the same reason.

Interesting.

I would think snipes were set at less than 17 seconds remaining, so we very well may have lost some snipes. There also could've been old-fashioned style bidders set to bid with less than 17 seconds left who backed off at the last second when the winning bid amount jumped from 1,616.00 to 2,550.00.

[Smashey]

There also could've been old-fashioned style bidders set to bid with less than 17 seconds left who backed off at the last second when the winning bid amount jumped from 1,616.00 to 2,550.00.

The 2550 bid was right at the very end. Anone else who bid at the last second came back invalid, too low.

[depluto]

The governor of New York agrees ... that is too much money for one night with a comic book.

[worldsbestcomics]

Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

I agree...it's the best info we have right now. It certainly makes me think differently about upcoming purchases. There are still a ton of dealers out there who don't think Valiants are worth anything significant. I don't think the $2500+ can be considered sustainable, but I think it completely validates the $1000+ range (and may signal that this range is here to stay for quite a while...maybe for good). I see arbitrage opportunities...

I agree that $2,500 is very unsustainable... the buyer even said he didn't think it would hold.

To be fair to ZWH's point... my formula should probably discount the $2,550 sale.

Even so, using the 10% +/- one step calculation with 9.8 at $1,000...
the calculation for a CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 comes to around $205.
That's what it would have been before the $2,550 sale.

In the past 12 months, CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has averaged $90.
The $125 number is from the past 30 days.

Either way... a bargain.

My point is that those of us who might be sad that CGC 9.8 Valiant books
are "out of our price range" should really, really consider CGC 9.6 right now.

Greg,

I don't know about how to value a 9.8 Harby 1 right now. Although only 1 Harby 1 $1000 sale is in GPA, I was personally involved in a private deal where a 9.8 Harby 1 sold at $1000 and I traded another where we used $1000 as the value. In all three cases, I thought the Harby 1 was undervalued - I didn't realize how much until I saw this auction.

The Comiclink sale attracted very aggressive bidding and the seller sold it quickly - that was the public $1000 sale. If it had been priced higher and sold slower, it would have gone for more than $1000. The buyer was working on a 9.8 pre-Unity Valiant run at the time but quit shortly thereafter and offered the Harby 1 to me for $1000 and I didn't hesitate. I wanted the Harby 1 to use in trade with my extra CGC 9.8 Solar 10 to get some of the few remaining 9.8 pre-unity Valiants that I needed to finish my run. We valued the pair at $1700 for the sale/trade. I thought this was low for both books (Boy was I right about that!) but I didn't have sale data to back up my instincts. And I was dealing with a buddy so I wasn't out to maximize my profit. I am sure he is feeling much better about that trade now with those two books selling for $3550 And I am happy because I finished the run

But, while I was trying to work out the trade, I had several offers at $1000. If the trade hadn't worked, I probably would have gone the eBay route myself and I am sure the price would have been at least in the $1700 range you are talking about if not this $2550.

As far as sustainability, there are competing factors: Demand may in fact increase as more collectors become interested in Valiant now that they are publishing again. And a Harbinger movie will help demand. There are several very aggressive Valiant collectors working on their 9.8 pre-Unity runs and Harby 1 (and Solar 10) are undeniably the keys to that run. This sale may have knocked one of those buyers out of the mix for future sales but it has also taken one of these very scarce books off the market. In general, I see demand as more likely to increase over the next couple years rather than decrease.

Supply is the biggest unknown regarding future prices for Harby 1 and Solar 10. These books have not seen the 9.8 census growth of other "tough" pre-Unity issues. If few, or no, new books come to market in the next year or two, then I would imagine that we will see similar results for future sales. A $3000+ sale around the release time of the movie would not be a remote possibility at all.

[StarBrand]

Since the announcement of the Harbinger movie and subsequent blurb about new Valiants by the end of the year, Harbinger 1 has consistently traded around double what it traded for before those announcements, be it unslabbed or slabbed.
I'd say we've moved into a new trading range for Harbinger 1. The book was trading in this new range before last night's auction, and still is after it.

[Escaflown4]

Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

I agree...it's the best info we have right now. It certainly makes me think differently about upcoming purchases. There are still a ton of dealers out there who don't think Valiants are worth anything significant. I don't think the $2500+ can be considered sustainable, but I think it completely validates the $1000+ range (and may signal that this range is here to stay for quite a while...maybe for good). I see arbitrage opportunities...

I agree that $2,500 is very unsustainable... the buyer even said he didn't think it would hold.

To be fair to ZWH's point... my formula should probably discount the $2,550 sale.

Even so, using the 10% +/- one step calculation with 9.8 at $1,000...
the calculation for a CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 comes to around $205.
That's what it would have been before the $2,550 sale.

In the past 12 months, CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has averaged $90.
The $125 number is from the past 30 days.

Either way... a bargain.

My point is that those of us who might be sad that CGC 9.8 Valiant books
are "out of our price range" should really, really consider CGC 9.6 right now.

Just remember that it takes two individuals to have the price skyrocket this high. So in this case, there is also the under-bidder willing to shell out $2500 for the next copy.

[wallywest]

Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

I agree...it's the best info we have right now. It certainly makes me think differently about upcoming purchases. There are still a ton of dealers out there who don't think Valiants are worth anything significant. I don't think the $2500+ can be considered sustainable, but I think it completely validates the $1000+ range (and may signal that this range is here to stay for quite a while...maybe for good). I see arbitrage opportunities...

I agree that $2,500 is very unsustainable... the buyer even said he didn't think it would hold.

To be fair to ZWH's point... my formula should probably discount the $2,550 sale.

Even so, using the 10% +/- one step calculation with 9.8 at $1,000...
the calculation for a CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 comes to around $205.
That's what it would have been before the $2,550 sale.

In the past 12 months, CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has averaged $90.
The $125 number is from the past 30 days.

Either way... a bargain.

My point is that those of us who might be sad that CGC 9.8 Valiant books
are "out of our price range" should really, really consider CGC 9.6 right now.

Just remember that it takes two individuals to have the price skyrocket this high. So in this case, there is also the under-bidder willing to shell out $2500 for the next copy.

You actually need THREE bidders willing to go that high to get two sales that high.

[Escaflown4]

Shame on you!

This analysis rests on the foundation of TWO 9.8 sales.

Oh, sure, the numbers that flow are impressive sounding....

TWO sales does NOT a mathematical trend make. Your SAMPLE is too small to be considered a true sample.

My sample is COMPLETE. That's all I can do.
How many recent sales did you use to price your Primer #2?

I agree...it's the best info we have right now. It certainly makes me think differently about upcoming purchases. There are still a ton of dealers out there who don't think Valiants are worth anything significant. I don't think the $2500+ can be considered sustainable, but I think it completely validates the $1000+ range (and may signal that this range is here to stay for quite a while...maybe for good). I see arbitrage opportunities...

I agree that $2,500 is very unsustainable... the buyer even said he didn't think it would hold.

To be fair to ZWH's point... my formula should probably discount the $2,550 sale.

Even so, using the 10% +/- one step calculation with 9.8 at $1,000...
the calculation for a CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 comes to around $205.
That's what it would have been before the $2,550 sale.

In the past 12 months, CGC 9.6 Harbinger #1 has averaged $90.
The $125 number is from the past 30 days.

Either way... a bargain.

My point is that those of us who might be sad that CGC 9.8 Valiant books
are "out of our price range" should really, really consider CGC 9.6 right now.

Just remember that it takes two individuals to have the price skyrocket this high. So in this case, there is also the under-bidder willing to shell out $2500 for the next copy.

You actually need THREE bidders willing to go that high to get two sales that high.

Well I meant that from this auction we know there is one other individual willing to pay $2500. All the next seller needs to do is set the BIN at $2500.

[JustCallMeAric]

I am shocked by this price SHOCKED

[Elveen]

I am shocked by this price SHOCKED

I was, but not so much any more.

I am just glad that I do not collect CGC books. I have actually never held one in my hands....... and it is probably a good thing.

[Daniel Jackson]

I am just glad that I do not collect CGC books. I have actually never held one in my hands....... and it is probably a good thing.

Yeah, just paying the price for raw comics is bad enough.....

[GGSAE]

I agree that $2,500 is very unsustainable... the buyer even said he didn't think it would hold.

\

One little factoid to throw into this theory. Gavsters winning bid was $2550. That means someone else had bid at least $2500, and didnt win, in order for that final bid to get to $2550.

I think that makes $2500 very sustainable. We know there is at least one more person out there, looking for a 9.8, and willing to pay $2500. How many more are there? Or more importantly, how many people out there that own 9.8's are going to be willing to sell them less than $2500 after seeing this one?

Given the fact that this book is not going to show up for sale again in 9.8 in god knows how long, thats going to create even more interest, and draw more attention from more investors. This sale is going to strike up alot of peoples interests. And its just going to festor because there isnt another one up. In all honesty, I dont think $2500 is going to cut it next time.

The only thing that might possibly change this is that if other 9.8 holders make their books available and want to cash in after seeing this, which might just very well happen.

I don't know about that, it's difficult to predict the thoughts of two people involved in a bidding war. We really can't say this is a new trend without at least another sale at/exceeding this price. What if the buyer in the future decides he wants to sell this because of a sudden need of cash or wants to purchase something he/she considers more important. If the second bidder no longer wants to pay 2500 for this comic or maybe isn't even around when the auction is listed, it might not go for that price. We'll see when the next 9.8s come around.

[MoonChild]

so true, but when you have bought whole collections from LCS's & Personal collections before the new explosion for cheep you really want to slab the best of the best, it's just foolish not to, but yea, them CGC's sell for crazy money!

I am shocked by this price SHOCKED

I was, but not so much any more.

I am just glad that I do not collect CGC books. I have actually never held one in my hands....... and it is probably a good thing.

[Elveen]

I will admit.

I looked at some of my books yesterday. Some of them look perfect to me. Sharp corners, no color breaks on the spine, no stress like on the spine.

(but I really don't know how to grade.)

But I did think about submitting some...... but for just a moment.

[MoonChild]

aye its worth the investment to do a handfull at least!

I will admit.

I looked at some of my books yesterday. Some of them look perfect to me. Sharp corners, no color breaks on the spine, no stress like on the spine.

(but I really don't know how to grade.)

But I did think about submitting some...... but for just a moment.

[superman-prime]

wow 2500

[greg]

I moved this topic to General Valiant Discussion so that it can be referenced
by visitors/guests/press, if they're interested in the story.

[Leatus IV]

I have a 9.2 and a 9.4 CGC copy of this book.I can live with those.....

[jedimarley]

Looking at the winning bidders history, he's bought some other Valiant 9.8's at top dollar prices.