Theory of Speculation...

greg · Post by **greg** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 11:53 am

thespeculatorboy wrote:I wanted to make a point on all the points he made, but thats me, im a hyper-active thinker. Some people say it is a vice, but i say its an asset.

I'd say it's derailed another topic.

greg · Post by **greg** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 11:59 am

thespeculatorboy wrote:I know I derail topics, only because i super-analyze motives. Do you consider that a bad thing?

Yes. As you saw in the VOTE just last week... the majority of the board does too.

I'm sorry, but you have to go... again.
Please don't come back, in any form...

Feel free to badmouth ValiantComics.com, or me, if you wish,
to other people you will meet next on life's journey.

Once they get to know you, I'm sure it will become a ringing endorsement.

So that you are not voiceless in your quest to educate,
please consider this forum as a suitable alternative.

wrunow · Post by **wrunow** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 12:20 pm

CJV- I agree with everything you have stated and feel your opinions are well thought out, although I feel some speculators/investors are doing this to support their comic habit/hobby and not neccessarily for the money in the sense of getting rich on the profit. I personally sell books so that I can buy more that I want.

Vault-Keeper · Post by **Vault-Keeper** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 12:26 pm

cjv · Post by **cjv** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 12:47 pm

Hmmm...I caused a problem. Sorry about that.

I guess I do mean discretionary income, I am not an economist, so I apologize if I use terms incorrectly. If we were talking biology, mosquitoes, or ecology, I might be able to do better.

I would have placed the speculatorboy as a completionist - his goal of collecting is for a specific art style (pop art covers). That would generally fit in with the mode of a completionist collector - trying to get all the items that fit within their specific interest.

In terms of reading a 100 page book or a 300 page book, I would reach whichever book is more interesting.

Response to wrunow - I think the investors/speculators who are doing it to fund their habit (Side note - maybe we should start a Comic Collectors Anonymous!) are still looking to make money in the short term. What they want to do with the money is another matter entirely. After all, many investors will re-invest profit they make, regardless of the type of original investment. Now, there might be another type who speculates to try to make money to spend on a purely disposalbe product (ie, a comic they want to buy to read and not specifically not buy a comic book as another investment/speculation attempt. Like someone buying 20 copies of Bloodshot 1 when it came out, with the intent of selling 19 of them so they could then by the rest of the Bloodshot line for reading purposes). But that might be getting too specific in terms of plans for the money. I prefer to group anyone who buys, with the intent to sell for monetary gain, as an investor/speculator, regardless of what they plan to do with the monetary gain.

Steve - I agree that I don't see prices rising much more, but I think it is possible. As I mentioned in my post, it is a risky comic book investment to buy comics from a defunct company, with titles that are no longer printed, and with a core audience that is relatively small (and not that likely to grow a lot). Now, if Valiant comics (or the characters/storylines) suddenly started being produced again, then I could see the prices for the old issues going up even more. But without increasing the fan base (via more comics, movies, or something like that, although Greg's website is probably helping out somewhat!) there is simply a limited number of possible people who would want to buy the comics. The only other people are the OTHER investors who would see the high prices paid, then want to buy some of their own (thinking they will continue to rise). That is what might cause the prices to rise somewhat - more investors trying to get in on the action. They might start to think well, if XO 1/2 gold sold for $X, maybe XO 0 gold will soon follow!

I think if this were to continue to happen, it would be like the internet stock bubble - prices would rise and rise, then suddenly collapse as people realized that the prices are abnormally high. Then investors would be desperate to get rid of their Valiants at ANY price, and it will drive the Valiant market into a tumble - good time for me to pick up the VVSS issues I am missing.

So the future market depends on a number of factors

1) Increasing the fan base. This is the only way to verify that price increases will continue or remain stable.

2) The future of the characters and titles.

3) How many other people see the prices of Valiant comics and try to get in on the second gold rush.

Another interesting item to think about - what are "reasonable" prices for the various issues? Based on supply and demand, it seems like it would be possible to come up with prices that we suspect the comics SHOULD be....sort of like stock brokers coming up with estimates on what a stocks value should be based on a companies worth. We could try to come up with some kind of reasonable expectations based on supply (how many issues come up for sale on a regular basis) and print run. That might help out some people trying to fill their collections - coming up with a recommended price. Of course, that pretty much has reached the end of my contributions, since I have no idea to even go about something like that.

Chris

ckb · Post by **ckb** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 12:54 pm

My thoughts on the accumulation by Mr. Au of X-O 0 gold: As an investor, he is thinking far in advance. What books can he buy now that may be considered must-haves for collectors who wish to have all the keys/semi-keys for their collections? The current modern age won't always be called the moden age. In this respect, X-O 0 is an historic book with it's spectacular chromium cover - the first one ever. And the Gold is much more desirable than the regular - it's a double gimmick cover (Gold logo gimmick on top of the chromium gimmick), a perfect reprsentation of the Era.

Or, he likes the crap out of X-O.

DawgPhan · Post by **DawgPhan** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 12:58 pm

greg wrote:
thespeculatorboy wrote:I know I derail topics, only because i super-analyze motives. Do you consider that a bad thing?
Yes. As you saw in the VOTE just last week... the majority of the board does too.

I'm sorry, but you have to go... again.
Please don't come back, in any form...

Feel free to badmouth ValiantComics.com, or me, if you wish,
to other people you will meet next on life's journey.

Once they get to know you, I'm sure it will become a ringing endorsement.

So that you are not voiceless in your quest to educate,
please consider this forum as a suitable alternative.

Man he should have seen this coming...you can not argue with the man in his own house...that is a sure fire way to get shown the door...anyway.if will be interesting to see he if comes back...sorry I know that this is off topic...
On topic....for the record I could care less about aug002 since we have yet to go after the same book...the moment that he beats me on something my opinion will change..I would be cursing the ground that walked on and the air he breathed....but until then let him buy up all the books...I hope that he is having fun with them...

cjv · Post by **cjv** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 1:03 pm

BTE, I hope I don't give the impression I have a problem with Aug002. I don't really have any problem with him buying whatever he wants. It is frustrating when you feel like you are bidding a reasonable amount for a book, but someone with unlimited (or seemingly unlimited) pockets bids against you, but that can always happen (unless you are the richest person in the planet and decide you will pay whatever you can to get something).

I was speaking more in general terms about the effect that investors/speculators might have on the Valiant comic market.

Chris

Master Dorque · Post by **Master Dorque** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 2:29 pm

Comic books are an art form. They were produced to be read and enjoyed. The fact the demand for certain issues is greater than the available supply has produced a rise in value, and with that, the use of the comic book as an investment option. I think the reason some people have a problem with this is that by owning multiple copies of the same issue as an investment, you are depriving others from the opportunity to enjoy the art form by actually reading the books. The future of the industry really rests upon people embracing comics for the enjoyment they give through reading them, not as an investment option. Therefore one could postulate that by hoarding books as an investment, you actually hamper the medium, and hurt those creators who's livelyhood is dependent upon a strong base of comic book readers. People need to be able to see and read the books before they become fans. If the books are not in the hand of potential new readers, they are not producing new readers. Price fluctuations in any commodity will produce those looking to profit by the purchase and sale of the commodity, but these people are not the ones the comic book industry relies on to exist. It's comic book fans, those that actually read and enjoy comic books, that keep the industry alive. Fan-boys like myself would continue to buy comics even if they never increased in value one cent, because we love the medium. The fact that they retain or increase in value is only a bonus to a true fan.

oxygen · Post by **oxygen** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 4:12 pm

I could care less about Aug because I don't even deal with those books, but I do have a problem when people buy countless copies of rare books. Take for instance the guy who bought 22 or however many copies of Solar #6. That's 21 less people who could walk into the comic store and pick up an amazing book for a couple cents. These are supposed to be such great stories, and it's sad when the books just wither away in collections in closets (maybe he's not going to store those books in a collection, but many people have and will continue to do so). And once those books hit the collector circuit, they'll never come out. It's just a cycle between more and more collectors, cutting off any hopes of new readers experiencing them. Maybe I'm just bitter because I can't find/afford these books, but oh well, it's still disheartening to me.

edit : I should have read all the posts because I realize now that mine is similar to the one before me. At least I know someone's on my side.

x-omatic · Post by **x-omatic** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 4:16 pm

oxygen wrote:I could care less about Aug because I don't even deal with those books, but I do have a problem when people buy countless copies of rare books. Take for instance the guy who bought 22 or however many copies of Solar #6. That's 21 less people who could walk into the comic store and pick up an amazing book for a couple cents. These are supposed to be such great stories, and it's sad when the books just wither away in collections in closets (maybe he's not going to store those books in a collection, but many people have and will continue to do so). And once those books hit the collector circuit, they'll never come out. It's just a cycle between more and more collectors, cutting off any hopes of new readers experiencing them. Maybe I'm just bitter because I can't find/afford these books, but oh well, it's still disheartening to me.

The books can always be found. It is only a question of how much you want to pay.

whetteon · Post by **whetteon** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 4:27 pm

cjv wrote: Another interesting item to think about - what are "reasonable" prices for the various issues? Based on supply and demand, it seems like it would be possible to come up with prices that we suspect the comics SHOULD be....sort of like stock brokers coming up with estimates on what a stocks value should be based on a companies worth. We could try to come up with some kind of reasonable expectations based on supply (how many issues come up for sale on a regular basis) and print run. That might help out some people trying to fill their collections - coming up with a recommended price. Of course, that pretty much has reached the end of my contributions, since I have no idea to even go about something like that.

Chris

This is just as interesting as speculation because here we would have a set value or perceived worth of the book. Therefore, board members and valiant enthusiast alike would know how much they should reasonably spend trying to obtain a book for their collection. Of course doing so is subject to some type of flaw from the start but that hasn't stopped us before from posting our opinions. I'm sure if we spent as much time thinking about this problem as we do posting about Aug002, we would have some basic ideas hammered out in less then a day

I'll try to think of some and spin if off to another post if people are willing to follow the topic.

oxygen · Post by **oxygen** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 4:34 pm

x-omatic wrote: The books can always be found. It is only a question of how much you want to pay.

Sitting here on a valiant board, yeah, I realize that. But this community isn't going to get Joe Schmoe off the street interested about great storylines when 15 copies of Magnus #4 are sitting in a collector's basement. I'm not offering a solution, because frankly I don't know how we would go about it, but stockpiling Shooter's books for the sake of owning a bunch of copies is detrimental to the community, in my eyes.

cjv · Post by **cjv** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 4:42 pm

"Sitting here on a valiant board, yeah, I realize that. But this community isn't going to get Joe Schmoe off the street interested about great storylines when 15 copies of Magnus #4 are sitting in a collector's basement. I'm not offering a solution, because frankly I don't know how we would go about it, but stockpiling Shooter's books for the sake of owning a bunch of copies is detrimental to the community, in my eyes."

This goes back to my assetion that as long as the comics are not being produced, the fan base is not really going to grow. How many "off the street" fans that you know of are going to buy a comic they don't know anything about it a back issue bin? My guess is not a lot. If the a comic is being produced today, and the story line continues, then someone may pick a NEW issue off the shelf based on the recommendation of a friend or store owner, but I think most people will refrain from trying something brand new from a back issue bin (regardless of price). Thus, the only way the fan base is going to grow is by either a) the "trade' in back issues becomes so hot that they get a lot of mention from store owners, magazines, etc, or b) the prices get to be so high they can't be ignored in terms of just mentioning "Did you see how much Harbinger 1 went for!!". And those two things are only going to happen if investors continue to want to buy these comics as possibly sources of profit. Which brings me to my whole idea of how the bubble will continue to expand but then burst.

Chris

x-omatic · Post by **x-omatic** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 6:08 pm

oxygen wrote:
x-omatic wrote: The books can always be found. It is only a question of how much you want to pay.
Sitting here on a valiant board, yeah, I realize that. But this community isn't going to get Joe Schmoe off the street interested about great storylines when 15 copies of Magnus #4 are sitting in a collector's basement. I'm not offering a solution, because frankly I don't know how we would go about it, but stockpiling Shooter's books for the sake of owning a bunch of copies is detrimental to the community, in my eyes.

This would be true if the books were being produced. But they havent been for a long time. However because I have 17 copies of Magnus 0 it does in fact allow me to give 1 or 2 away from time to time to introduce new readers. Which I have in fact done before.

Yes I have bought more than I "need" but I just can't let one sell for $5.00. It worth more to me than that.

Sector3600 · Post by **Sector3600** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 6:15 pm

Comics require a certain level of maturity or acceptance that the average person sometimes develops.

For as long as I can remember, if you weren't in the biz or had like Amazing Spider-man #1 or Detective Comics #27 or etc., you were considered "immature" having these "kid books" around.

For me it wasn't until my Father witness me buy a box of comics at a estate auction for around $50 and sold a Superboy #3 (in VF- condition) I found in the box for $120.00. My father saw the investment aspect, where as I saw it as a means to buy more of the comics I liked to read at the time.

Most of my collection are basically copies of a storyline or issue I enjoyed to read and hoped to have another in case my reading copy gets lost or even

stolen.

If I could, I would buy more copies of the pre-Unity and my favorite reads.

As to stocks, there is more media coverage for better or worst where as for comics its rare to hear much beyond a "entertainment" or "special interest" medium.

lobo · Post by **lobo** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 9:46 pm

oxygen wrote:
x-omatic wrote: The books can always be found. It is only a question of how much you want to pay.
Sitting here on a valiant board, yeah, I realize that. But this community isn't going to get Joe Schmoe off the street interested about great storylines when 15 copies of Magnus #4 are sitting in a collector's basement. I'm not offering a solution, because frankly I don't know how we would go about it, but stockpiling Shooter's books for the sake of owning a bunch of copies is detrimental to the community, in my eyes.

I'm one of the guys who have a growing stockpile of Shooter/ pre-unity books. I've also thought long and hard on how to get interest in Valiants going again at least in my area.
The Unity saga basically got me into Valiants in the first place. It's a great story highlighting everything that was great about Valiants. It exposes the reader to the core characters of the Valiant universe. Every comic fan should read this story.
If you are a Valiant hoarder and have tons of multiple copies of Unity books, put together as many complete runs of all 18 chapters and offer them up two potential fanboys at a cheap price for the bundle so they can read it. Maybe also throw in a copy of Rai #0!
If a true comic fan reads this, there is no reason why their interest won't be picqued just abit and they may be then seeking out back issues of other Valiant books. WE know how cheap the unity books can be bought for and MOST of us have the resources to put together extra complete runs of unity, so why not try to sell that to a new readership?
I am personally not ready to dole out my bunch of premium (preunity/gold) Valiants but I am going to offer up potential fanboys at my work the unity chapters to take home and read and purchase if they want to. If I ever sell some of my collection at a trade show I definitlely will have a Unity bundle or two ready to sell to anyone who is willing to give it a try.
A deal like $20(CDN) for 18 comics (plus Rai #0 as icing on the cake) should seem like a reasonable deal to a new but maybe skeptical reader I would think. The story should sell itself if you can properly motivate a future fan.
Any thoughts?

Zero · Post by **Zero** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 10:09 pm

oxygen wrote:
x-omatic wrote: The books can always be found. It is only a question of how much you want to pay.
Sitting here on a valiant board, yeah, I realize that. But this community isn't going to get Joe Schmoe off the street interested about great storylines when 15 copies of Magnus #4 are sitting in a collector's basement. I'm not offering a solution, because frankly I don't know how we would go about it, but stockpiling Shooter's books for the sake of owning a bunch of copies is detrimental to the community, in my eyes.

You need to understand a little more about how people got their books before you make a blanket statement like this. Aug02 is someone fitting perfectly into your mold. I understand (although disagree) why people dislike his buying practices. He's paying record sums for these rare books & stockpiling multiples. Me? I have over 10 full pre-unity sets with tons of doubles. No bragging, just truth. How many of you have been outbid by Stanchek71 on E-bay in the last couple years? I bought my books long ago when I was bidding against Hillman, Sonic, & Greg for Unity 0 reds & Harbinger 0 pinks under $10 each. When things started going nuts I forgot E-bay & was just happy I bought when the supply was FAR more than demand. Back then I felt stupid for hoarding worthless books. Now I feel a little wiser...
I also love taking long weekends roaming the countryside looking for hole-in-the-wall comic shops. Sorting discount comics takes the stress out of my job. Something exhilarating to me about not knowing what the next sort will bring. If I find any key book (Valiant or otherwise) in a discount bin then I will buy the book. I have bought tons recently that way. I guess what I'm trying to say is that my collection is truely "rescued" because the books I have were wanted by vertually no one when I bought them. I remember buying a vvss lot of something like 50 books with every embossed book included in triplicate with extras for something like $20 shipped. This was 3-4 years ago on E-bay & no one even bid against me. I dropped the start bid several days before auction end & never was bid against. Am I evil because I have a ton of VVSS sitting in boxes? Nobody else wanted 'em. I think people should be more upset with themselves for not realizing how great Valiant is earlier on... ~Erskine

cjv · Post by **cjv** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 10:25 pm

"If a true comic fan reads this, there is no reason why their interest won't be picqued just abit and they may be then seeking out back issues of other Valiant books"

That seems like a bit of a snooty idea. Couldn't a "true" comic book fan enjoy comic books for the art? Or just not be interested in the story line? Maybe they like stories about other topics?

I mean, yes, I think the Valiant comics (the earlier ones) were incredibly well written, but that doesn't mean that everyone has to like them - not even all comic book readers/collectors.

Chris

BodaZoffa · Post by **BodaZoffa** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 11:01 pm

greg wrote:To put it even more bluntly...

Why does this community, in particular, denigrate Aug002, in particular,
when he is simply investing in items he deems worthy of his money?
Why do we (as a community) feel that someone should have one copy,
or maybe two copies, and then leave the rest alone?

No one says you shouldn't have more than two shares of IBM...
so what's the difference if you're buying what you know and like best?

I for one, think AUG has done a valuable service to the Valiant community. His auction bids started a frenzy about a year ago, & people were in shock. Now it is common for a Solar #1 CGC 9.8 to sell for over $200.00. Even Wizard has recognized these prices. I really think that AUG got the ball rolling again (along with others like Greg).

Boda

lobo · Post by **lobo** » Wed Apr 14, 2004 11:55 pm

cjv wrote:"If a true comic fan reads this, there is no reason why their interest won't be picqued just abit and they may be then seeking out back issues of other Valiant books"

That seems like a bit of a snooty idea. Couldn't a "true" comic book fan enjoy comic books for the art? Or just not be interested in the story line? Maybe they like stories about other topics?

I mean, yes, I think the Valiant comics (the earlier ones) were incredibly well written, but that doesn't mean that everyone has to like them - not even all comic book readers/collectors.

Chris

You miss my point.
To read a comic is to enjoy (hopefully) both art and story. Early Valiants are unique in their era on both counts. I'm saying we may need to give individual comic fans a friendly push towards something like Unity to expose them to something they might not overwise look at. Everyone on this board took that chance at one point and I think we are all glad we did.
You won't likely convince a speculator that a Unity bundle is worth them purchasing. But for someone that is interested in some decent 'four color' reading, they may take a shine to Unity and that could snow ball into something bigger for that reader's interest to the point where they wish to read and collect like you or me.

Rai-fan · Post by **Rai-fan** » Thu Apr 15, 2004 8:19 am

I have nothing against speculators or hoarders of Valiant books. If anything, I'm simply jealous of them. If I had the funds, I would pour them into pre-unity books before I'd stockpile mid-80s Marvels I could care less about.

Personally, I'd love to have enough copies to influence the market. Sure, there are extreme examples, like those two guys in the midwest that still purportedly own 1/3rd of the Howard the Duck # 1s. But I would take 50 X-0 1s over 50 Punisher ('87 ongoing) # 1s any day.

Just because Valiants have a limited fanbase & artificially high prices on Ebay (due to _us_) doesn't mean they're not still a sound investment.

My all-time favorite add in Overstreet was from one of the mid-90s annuals. A store was paying $14 each for NM copies of Spectacular Spiderman # 1, or $1500 per hundred. At the time, it guided at only $10. Granted, that book's down to about $25 from its $45 high, but was it a good "investment?"

Side note: at one point my local comic store owned more than 70,000 copies of X-men # 1 (1991). Worthless, sure...but it was still an insane sight to behold. Go hoarders!

sandman · Post by **sandman** » Thu Apr 15, 2004 8:24 am

As a collector, I'm inherently materialistic. I want a complete collection not only for my own enjoyment and pride, but to beat my chest and say look what I have. Why else do we have the inventory list?

That being said, I started to buy Valiants for the unique art and story during a time when gimics sold comics. I can't tell you how many flashy covers of bad books I've never read and have sitting in a box in the corner of my closet. I am trying to complete the valiant reading collection. I would love to own Harbinger #0 pink. I own the version from the TPB. It reads the same. If I find a good deal on the pink I'll get it. I'm hearing stories of 0.25 bin finds and I'd jump on them too. I kept all of my Valiants during a time when they just took up space. I didn't read any of them for years. I wouldn't have given them away though. They were still priceless to me. I remember memorizing the covers of the rare issues I couldn't find/afford. I imagined what amazing story was in the precious book I couldn't get yet. Once I found them they were etched into my memory. The hunt to find them was part of the adventure.

I'm still about 150 comics away from a complete reading collection, mostly late stuff after Birthquake. I think I only have about 3-4 "special" books and they aren't the big "gold", "platinum" or "VVSS" books. I have the "Comic Defense Hardcorp" and Pink XO 15. The only reason I got them is I was the local Valiant nut at my comic shop and they held them for me. I also only own typically 1 copy of each issue. I did get second issues of Rai 1-4 and XO 4 because I found them cheap in a bin. I would probably rescue other Pre-Unity books if I found them too.

If I learned anything from the early 90's comic collecting, it's that you can't speculate what comics will be worth. It's a very poor investment option. Sure there are examples of great return (Action #1, Amazing Fantasy 15), but those are few and far between. Consider X-Force #1 or most of the Image books I have rotting in my closet. Also note I was one of those crazy people who bought Magnus 12 for $85 back in '93 because I was sure it would never be cheaper

. Looks pretty foolish now. Ditto for most of my Harbinger and Rai 1-5 issues (though I didn't pay quite as much).

If Aug002 wants to pay that much for books more power to him. I spent too much on comics before also. If he thinks he'll make money, don't bet on it. The comic is only worth what you are willing to pay for it.

DawgPhan · Post by **DawgPhan** » Thu Apr 15, 2004 8:33 am

oxygen wrote:I could care less about Aug because I don't even deal with those books, but I do have a problem when people buy countless copies of rare books. Take for instance the guy who bought 22 or however many copies of Solar #6. That's 21 less people who could walk into the comic store and pick up an amazing book for a couple cents. These are supposed to be such great stories, and it's sad when the books just wither away in collections in closets (maybe he's not going to store those books in a collection, but many people have and will continue to do so). And once those books hit the collector circuit, they'll never come out. It's just a cycle between more and more collectors, cutting off any hopes of new readers experiencing them. Maybe I'm just bitter because I can't find/afford these books, but oh well, it's still disheartening to me.

edit : I should have read all the posts because I realize now that mine is similar to the one before me. At least I know someone's on my side.

Well I am going to have to disagree with you on this one...NO ONE was going to walk in a buy that book.....No one had walked in and bought that book for over 10 years. Plus the guy that you are talking about is a stand up guy who has helped more than one person fill holes in their collection from these finds....This statement about someone, who may or may not even exist, having more right to those comics is *SQUEE*....it is borderline the dumdest thing that I have heard in long time....No one has any more "right" to a comic book than me...If I find it and I have the money to get it then it is mine...Plain and Simple....this is America, right?

For the record(I think that I might already be on the record) But I could care less about Aug002 until he beats me on something, then I will hate him. Not because he has something that I dont...I will find another copy(these things arent rare), but because he BEAT me...that is all....

wrunow · Post by **wrunow** » Thu Apr 15, 2004 9:08 am

In response to Raifan:
Does anyone else here think that the boardmembers are jacking up the prices of pre-unity books on ebay? I don't think this is true, I find most of the boardmembers here pretty value driven, looking for that gem book at the right price, or combined in large lots to lower the cost per book. There is some competitive bidding on the really rare books like the XO 1/2 gold, but those are rare by the standard of any book from any era, with the only exception being that it is a variant cover. What do you guys think?[/quote]

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