Will Bloodshot break 50,000 copies?

[drmirage]

Paradise ordered 2000 copies of X-O #1.

If 23 other comic shops order 2000 copies. Then yes!

[riprap]

Just curious, are these the numbers that Valiant is looking for? In this marketplace, 40-50,000 is probably a lot. I know the publishers at Valiant have looked into this, but I'm just hoping for a healthy Valiant for the future!

We've been through that issue a lot on here and the answer is that nobody knows. We know that the smaller, successful publishers like Dynamite and IDW sell in the high teens or twenties and are doing just fine, though they also have licensing fees, etc which VEI doesn't have to deal with. Add in digital to the equation and it's anyone's guess what is needed to be profitable.

I only bring 50,000 up because XO was so close to that number. VEI seemed to have done their homework and hit the numbers pretty dead on for XO. Of course one is always going to see higher orders for a first issue than latter ones, especially during a major relaunch, and we can expect the order numbers to level off at a lower level. Where that will be, though, is anyone's guess.

Thanks. It's good to know that this board is helpful with questions. Valiant fans are great!

[BugsySig]

Just curious, are these the numbers that Valiant is looking for? In this marketplace, 40-50,000 is probably a lot. I know the publishers at Valiant have looked into this, but I'm just hoping for a healthy Valiant for the future!

We've been through that issue a lot on here and the answer is that nobody knows. We know that the smaller, successful publishers like Dynamite and IDW sell in the high teens or twenties and are doing just fine, though they also have licensing fees, etc which VEI doesn't have to deal with. Add in digital to the equation and it's anyone's guess what is needed to be profitable.

I only bring 50,000 up because XO was so close to that number. VEI seemed to have done their homework and hit the numbers pretty dead on for XO. Of course one is always going to see higher orders for a first issue than latter ones, especially during a major relaunch, and we can expect the order numbers to level off at a lower level. Where that will be, though, is anyone's guess.

Thanks. It's good to know that this board is helpful with questions. Valiant fans are great!

Also, those that are saying some stores that have extra copies of XO will order less, I would counter that stores that ordered nothing or very few copies and either sold out or have heard about the success of XO will increase their orders. So at the very least I would expect a similar number to XO.

[geocarr]

Also, those that are saying some stores that have extra copies of XO will order less, I would counter that stores that ordered nothing or very few copies and either sold out or have heard about the success of XO will increase their orders. So at the very least I would expect a similar number to XO.

I see your logic there but ultimately I think most of the stores with excess X-O #1 will decrease their order quantity of subsequent #1 issues more than the stores who underordered X-O #1 will increase their future orders of #1's until the entire line "takes off" more. I don't think it will quite balance out but I'd love to be wrong.

[Man Of The Atom]

No. I am kind of nervous about to many copies being printed.

[Daniel Jackson]

At least it's not in the Turok #1 league of overprinting....

[Aram]

Based on talking to multiple lcs and researching print runs on books by marvel and dc that I collect and consider popular...

If i was betting on it I would now say 25-30k tops for bloodshot tops unless harby sells out in actual lcs stores.

[BugsySig]

Based on talking to multiple lcs and researching print runs on books by marvel and dc that I collect and consider popular...

If i was betting on it I would now say 25-30k tops for bloodshot tops unless harby sells out in actual lcs stores.

But a Harbinger sell-out wouldn't effect the BS print run because it will arive after the order deadline. Even news of another sell-out at Diamond would come after BS orders are due. The real test will be the non #1s and issues after all the relaunches are through for the summer.

No. I am kind of nervous about to many copies being printed.

I don't see too many copies being published. #1) I trust VEI to produce a number that is sufficient to meet demand (at least at the retailer level) based on their marketing and planning thus far, and #2) Name me a book right now that you can't find extra issues of floating around that had a decent print run to begin with? If you can't find one, it probably has a second printing.

Big stores tend to over-order, in my experience, and while they could compensate by cutting their following order, it doesn't make sense to do so. They make a profit off the extra variants they recieve which makes up the difference in regular issue cost (espescially in this case). Small LCS's are a different animal and can go either way, but I think there has been enough discussion here about "those" LCS owners who make poor decisions in general.

[Aram]

Big stores tend to over-order, in my experience, and while they could compensate by cutting their following order, it doesn't make sense to do so. They make a profit off the extra variants they recieve which makes up the difference in regular issue cost (espescially in this case). Small LCS's are a different animal and can go either way, but I think there has been enough discussion here about "those" LCS owners who make poor decisions in general.

I'm just speculating based on the results of LCS in my region. We don't have any megashops around, but we do have some larger and quite a few small. The medium and large shops over ordered, the small ones ordered just about right. The larger shops cut their harby orders at the last minute, and made their bloodshot orders a fraction of what the X-O and Harbys were.

I would estimate 500-800 copies of X-O went to my region and there was only demand for about 200-300.
I'm estimating there will be about 300-400 copies of Harby ordered in my Region and that demand will be between 200-300.
For bloodshot it looks like it will be more like 200-300 copies ordered in my region tops.

So, I'm thinking Initial demand over the next few months will be low for regular X-O's, average to good for Harby, and Bloodshot will probably have super low comparative print runs and very high demand within a few months, especially for the Variants.

Archer and Armstrong could go either way depending on how well the early Valiant's sell before the final cutoff for order adjustments.

[BugsySig]

Big stores tend to over-order, in my experience, and while they could compensate by cutting their following order, it doesn't make sense to do so. They make a profit off the extra variants they recieve which makes up the difference in regular issue cost (espescially in this case). Small LCS's are a different animal and can go either way, but I think there has been enough discussion here about "those" LCS owners who make poor decisions in general.

I'm just speculating based on the results of LCS in my region. We don't have any megashops around, but we do have some larger and quite a few small. The medium and large shops over ordered, the small ones ordered just about right. The larger shops cut their harby orders at the last minute, and made their bloodshot orders a fraction of what the X-O and Harbys were.

I would estimate 500-800 copies of X-O went to my region and there was only demand for about 200-300.
I'm estimating there will be about 300-400 copies of Harby ordered in my Region and that demand will be between 200-300. For bloodshot it looks like it will be more like 200-300 copies ordered in my region tops.

That is a bit disconcerting, but (hopefully) may be just in your region. Just from the boards I saw a lot of comments about stores not having copies at all, along with the reports of over orders. I have to assume there is demand from retailers, though, if Valiant is going back to print on XO. And those retailers would then increase their orders for Bloodshot (though too late for Harby) based on that need. It will be interesting to see what that second print run is as that could be telling as to the amount of demand there still is/was for XO. You could then take a "modest" Bloodshot estimate and add that number to get a gage of the final number.

[Aram]

There is demand for second printings, but not at the big shops. Its the small shops that will be stocking the second prints. Otherwise i think the big shops will only order for the fringe collect them all pullbox people.

X-O will scare off the big shops but encourage slightly larger orders from the smaller. I think things will end up at about 15-19k print runs across the board by the time archer and armstrong hits issue 2 and then grow from there.

[Aram]

I think the problem at first will be the idea that these will end up like the dk books, when I really believe that has no chance of happening. I'm confident that if VEI doesnt print more than the initial orders, then we will see an exact smaller scale repeat of the original Valiant debut. Not the $100 books, but I'm betting the first ones other than X-o will be in demand and $10+ within 6-8 months for first printings. I also see Valiant slowly moving back into the number 3 spot at least in popularity, not actual sales. I wouldnt be surprised to see Valiant titles all consistantly in the top 100.

[BugsySig]

The DK issue is definitely out there, but hopefully XOs debut has eleviated some of that fear (no matter how unfounded in the first place

There is demand for second printings, but not at the big shops. Its the small shops that will be stocking the second prints. Otherwise i think the big shops will only order for the fringe collect them all pullbox people.

X-O will scare off the big shops but encourage slightly larger orders from the smaller. I think things will end up at about 15-19k print runs across the board by the time archer and armstrong hits issue 2 and then grow from there.

).

That is what I was trying to say: Estimate what the print run "should be" given some cut back by larger shops (say anywhere from 25-35k) then add the second print run as an estimate of increased orders from smaller stores. That, I think, might be a good indicator of the final count for BS.

I totally agree with your last set of numbers. I would guess a bit of a dip after the summer to the high teens, then a steady increase as long as the books come out on time and recieve good reviews consistently. Eventually, if all the books settle somewhere around 20-25k, that would be a huge success.

[ckb]

Well, I'm thinking we won't be getting to XO 1 numbers for any of the other books, and that is OK. I'm also thinking that in a year or two shops which today have extra copies of any of the first few books of any VEI title will not mind so much.

[Aram]

Well, I'm thinking we won't be getting to XO 1 numbers for any of the other books, and that is OK. I'm also thinking that in a year or two shops which today have extra copies of any of the first few books of any VEI title will not mind so much.

Totally agree.

[Paradigm38]

Yes. The ceiling though. Don't think anyone wants to see the 3 issue polybags at outlet stores in a few years. Keep things tight and on the money. Don't forget, no "non comic" distribution means no "other" edition types being used for cat box liners. =)